Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD
MA(9): $2.79
MA(20): $2.89
MACD: -0.1248
Signal: -0.1317
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 44.6
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,341
Avg (20d): 131,664
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 47.93
%D: 26.69
ADX: 25.96
+DI: 22.37
-DI: 24.8
Value: -52.07
Upper: 3.15
Middle: 2.89
Lower: 2.63
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 106.7 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.63 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.9 | 107.8 | 105.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 41.0 | 43.7 | 42.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 11.93 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.23 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 106.1 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 96.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.5 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.83 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.254 EUR/MWh (-0.021). JKM prices decreased to 11.490 USD/MMBtu (-0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.236 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-27
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-27
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.254 |
| OCT 25 | 11.517 |
| NOV 25 | 11.742 |
| DEC 25 | 11.879 |
| JAN 26 | 11.926 |
| FEB 26 | 11.926 |
| MAR 26 | 11.765 |
| APR 26 | 11.137 |
| MAY 26 | 10.966 |
| JUN 26 | 10.918 |
| JUL 26 | 10.941 |
| AUG 26 | 10.974 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.490 |
| NOV 25 | 11.750 |
| DEC 25 | 12.035 |
| JAN 26 | 12.195 |
| FEB 26 | 12.145 |
| MAR 26 | 11.780 |
| APR 26 | 11.195 |
| MAY 26 | 11.055 |
| JUN 26 | 11.140 |
| JUL 26 | 11.240 |
| AUG 26 | 11.320 |
| SEP 26 | 11.385 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-28 | $2.7 | $2.53 | $2.87 |
| 2025-08-29 | $2.72 | $2.55 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-30 | $2.71 | $2.55 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-31 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
Current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.62 and a resistance level at 2.98.
With a predicted price decline of 0.26% and a range between 2.54 and 2.88, there may be short-term opportunities to capitalize on volatility. Traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in sentiment or unexpected weather patterns that could impact demand.
The fundamental balance of 6.50 BCFD suggests an increase in supply, which could pressure prices further. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies.
Given the neutral overall market sentiment and negative sentiment surrounding natural gas, it may be prudent to monitor inventory levels closely and adjust production to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines.
With low heating demand expected and moderate cooling demand across regions, consumers can anticipate relatively stable supply reliability. However, the potential for price fluctuations exists due to the bearish market sentiment and the current price range of 2.54 to 2.88.
It may be beneficial for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to protect against price volatility in the near term.
The market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish technical indicators and a neutral overall sentiment. The fundamental balance shows an increase in supply, while the cooling demand is prominent across most regions.
Analysts should pay close attention to the divergence between the sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas, as well as any geopolitical developments that could shift market dynamics. The next few days could reveal important trends based on weather forecasts and inventory reports.