Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-19 18:13

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.41 $0.88
WTI: $62.49 $0.87
Spread: $2.92 (Brent premium of $2.92)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 441,830 (0)
Net Imports: 2,472 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.67
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.62

MA(20): $61.07

Current Price is 62.67, 9 day MA 61.62, 20 day MA 61.07

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3986

Signal: -0.9839

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.81

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12

Avg (20d): 286,702

Ratio: 0.0

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 85.7

%D: 80.87

Stochastic %K: 85.7, %D: 80.87. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG DOWNTREND

ADX: 25.64

+DI: 18.19

-DI: 25.59

ADX: 25.64 (+DI: 18.19, -DI: 25.59). Trend: strong downtrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -14.3

Williams %R: -14.3 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.21

Middle: 61.07

Lower: 56.92

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.21, Middle: 61.07, Lower: 56.92

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13387.0 13367.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 5841.0 6056.0 6969.0 6724.0
Crude Exports 3369.0 4006.0 4468.0 3988.33
Refinery Inputs 16401.0 16071.0 15948.0 16060.0
Net Imports 2472.0 2050.0 2501.0 2735.67
Commercial Crude Stocks 441830.0 438376.0 459528.0 448488.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1617795.0 1612398.0 1606700.0 1634709.0
Gasoline Stocks 224706.0 225728.0 228002.0 222095.33
Distillate Stocks 103553.0 106708.0 116410.0 109287.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $65.41, change $+0.88. WTI crude (JUN 25) settled at $62.49, change $+0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.92 (Brent premium of $2.92). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.41
0.88
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$62.49
0.87
(JUN 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.92
Brent premium of $2.92

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-19 18:13:06

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.001
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 37
Last Updated: 2025-05-19 18:13:06

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.0

Top News Topics

Supply

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.38
Daily: -0.71 (-0.7%)
Weekly: -0.62 (-0.61%)

US_10Y

4.47
Daily: 0.03 (0.77%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

5963.6
Daily: 5.22 (0.09%)
Weekly: 77.05 (1.31%)

VIX

18.14
Daily: 0.9 (5.22%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-0.44%)

GOLD

3230.7
Daily: 48.7 (1.53%)
Weekly: -9.6 (-0.3%)

COPPER

4.66
Daily: 0.11 (2.35%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.41%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.67
Closest Support: $61.68 1.58% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 1.64% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.49
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-19 18:13:07
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-17 $62.41 $59.55 $65.27
2025-05-18 $62.3 $59.44 $65.16
2025-05-19 $62.37 $59.51 $65.23
2025-05-20 $62.46 $59.6 $65.32
2025-05-21 $62.4 $59.53 $65.26

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-05-17), reaching $62.41.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-17 and 2025-05-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market presents several insights:

  • With $65.41 for Brent and $62.49 for WTI, the Brent-WTI spread of $2.92 indicates a premium for Brent, reflecting potential supply/demand dynamics.
  • Recent news sentiment suggests concerns over oversupply, particularly with reports indicating a rise in commercial crude stocks by +3454.00 million barrels, which could pressure prices downward.
  • Market positioning is showing a weakening bullish sentiment, with non-commercial net positions decreasing. This could lead to increased volatility as traders react to changing fundamentals.
  • Short-term opportunities may arise from price fluctuations, particularly if oversupply fears materialize into significant price movements.
⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Key implications for production and hedging include:

  • The increase in commercial crude stocks suggests a need for careful production planning to avoid oversupply in the market.
  • Hedging strategies may need to be reevaluated given the current market sentiment and potential for price declines.
  • With the Brent-WTI spread reflecting a premium for Brent, producers focusing on international markets may benefit from the current price differentials.
  • Overall, maintaining flexibility in production levels will be crucial as market dynamics evolve.
🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Insights into cost fluctuations and supply risks:

  • With WTI at $62.49 and Brent at $65.41, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations based on geopolitical developments and inventory levels.
  • The current sentiment surrounding oversupply could lead to price drops, providing an opportunity for procurement at lower costs.
  • However, the risk of supply disruptions remains, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate, which could impact procurement strategies.
  • Monitoring the Brent-WTI spread is essential for understanding price movements and making informed purchasing decisions.
📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

A high-level synthesis of the current Crude Oil market:

  • The market is currently experiencing a neutral sentiment with a slight bias towards bearishness due to oversupply concerns and rising commercial crude stocks.
  • Positioning data indicates a weakening bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders, suggesting potential for price corrections.
  • Key driving factors include fundamental oversupply and geopolitical risks affecting market dynamics.
  • Future outlooks may shift if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels continue to rise, impacting supply-demand balance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-19 18:13

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