Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-21 23:46

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.38 $0.16
WTI: $62.56 $0.13
Spread: $2.82 (Brent premium of $2.82)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 443,158 (0)
Net Imports: 2,582 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.56
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.3

MA(20): $60.95

Current Price is 61.56, 9 day MA 62.3, 20 day MA 60.95

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2922

Signal: -0.7352

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.08

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 11,570

Avg (20d): 262,948

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 72.79

%D: 81.05

Stochastic %K: 72.79, %D: 81.05. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.79

+DI: 17.91

-DI: 25.9

ADX: 23.79 (+DI: 17.91, -DI: 25.9). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -27.21

Williams %R: -27.21 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.85

Middle: 60.95

Lower: 57.04

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.85, Middle: 60.95, Lower: 57.04

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13392.0 13387.0 13100.0 12433.33
Crude Imports 6089.0 5841.0 6744.0 6333.0
Crude Exports 3507.0 3369.0 4135.0 4540.0
Refinery Inputs 16490.0 16401.0 16255.0 16273.33
Net Imports 2582.0 2472.0 2609.0 1793.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 443158.0 441830.0 457020.0 444604.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623569.0 1617795.0 1610810.0 1631634.0
Gasoline Stocks 225522.0 224706.0 227767.0 220935.33
Distillate Stocks 104132.0 103553.0 116365.0 109779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $65.38, change $-0.16. WTI crude (JUN 25) settled at $62.56, change $-0.13. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.82 (Brent premium of $2.82). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.38
-0.16
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$62.56
-0.13
(JUN 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.82
Brent premium of $2.82

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-21 23:46:26

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.017
Confidence: 1.36
Articles Analyzed: 62
Last Updated: 2025-05-21 23:46:26

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.02

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Demand

4 articles

Geopolitical

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.5
Daily: -0.62 (-0.62%)
Weekly: -1.38 (-1.37%)

US_10Y

4.6
Daily: 0.12 (2.57%)
Weekly: 0.14 (3.16%)

SP500

5844.61
Daily: -95.85 (-1.61%)
Weekly: -72.32 (-1.22%)

VIX

20.87
Daily: 2.78 (15.37%)
Weekly: 3.04 (17.05%)

GOLD

3341.0
Daily: 60.7 (1.85%)
Weekly: 120.3 (3.74%)

COPPER

4.72
Daily: 0.1 (2.09%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.54%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.56
Closest Support: $59.17 3.88% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 0.19% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.57
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-21 23:46:27
Next Trading Day: UP 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-22 $61.68 $59.15 $64.21
2025-05-23 $61.64 $59.12 $64.17
2025-05-24 $61.64 $59.12 $64.17
2025-05-25 $61.67 $59.15 $64.2
2025-05-26 $61.74 $59.21 $64.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-05-22), reaching $61.68.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-22 and 2025-05-26.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~8.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market data suggests a neutral sentiment with a slight bearish tilt. The $65.38 Brent and $62.56 WTI prices indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $2.82, reflecting ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics. Traders should watch for potential support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $64.00 for Brent, while resistance may form near $66.00 for Brent and $63.50 for WTI. The risk of volatility remains due to geopolitical tensions and inventory changes, particularly with commercial crude stocks increasing by +1328.00 million barrels. Traders should consider short-term opportunities arising from any shifts in geopolitical sentiment or supply disruptions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the increase in commercial crude stocks, producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. The current market sentiment may lead to price stabilization, but the inventory levels indicate potential oversupply risks. Producers should monitor the $62.56 WTI and $65.38 Brent prices closely for signals to adjust production accordingly. The geopolitical landscape remains a significant factor that could impact operations, necessitating flexible strategies to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, as current WTI and Brent prices hover around $62.56 and $65.38 respectively. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and rising inventories may affect procurement strategies. As demand sentiment remains neutral with slight bearish undertones, consumers might consider hedging options to mitigate against sudden price spikes or drops. Close attention to market developments will be crucial for effective procurement planning.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with bearish pressures influenced by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand signals. The fundamentals, particularly the increase in commercial crude stocks by +1328.00 million barrels, suggest a potential oversupply scenario. The Brent-WTI spread indicates a divergence in global versus U.S. supply dynamics, which could lead to shifts in pricing strategies. Analysts should focus on the implications of CFTC positioning data, as non-commercial traders show a weakening bullish sentiment, indicating possible shifts in market dynamics. Continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments and inventory levels will be essential for forecasting future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-21 23:46

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