Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-29 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.9 $0.81
WTI: $61.84 $0.95
Spread: $3.06 (Brent premium of $3.06)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.64
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.71

MA(20): $60.93

Current Price is 60.64, 9 day MA 61.71, 20 day MA 60.93

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3448

Signal: -0.4568

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,751

Avg (20d): 254,339

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.44

%D: 43.28

Stochastic %K: 17.44, %D: 43.28. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.39

+DI: 17.34

-DI: 20.55

ADX: 18.39 (+DI: 17.34, -DI: 20.55). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.56

Williams %R: -82.56 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 64.41

Middle: 60.93

Lower: 57.44

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 64.41, Middle: 60.93, Lower: 57.44

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.90, change $+0.81. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $61.84, change $+0.95. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.06 (Brent premium of $3.06). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.9
0.81
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$61.84
0.95
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.06
Brent premium of $3.06

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-29 23:47:02

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.008
Confidence: 1.33
Articles Analyzed: 55
Last Updated: 2025-05-29 23:47:02

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

12 articles

Demand

3 articles

Geopolitical

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.42
Daily: -0.46 (-0.46%)
Weekly: 0.31 (0.31%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.05 (-1.18%)
Weekly: -0.13 (-2.83%)

SP500

5912.17
Daily: 23.62 (0.4%)
Weekly: 70.16 (1.2%)

VIX

19.18
Daily: -0.13 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -1.1 (-5.42%)

GOLD

3321.6
Daily: 28.0 (0.85%)
Weekly: 29.3 (0.89%)

COPPER

4.67
Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.37%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.64
Closest Support: $59.17 2.42% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 1.72% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-29 23:47:03
Next Trading Day: UP 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-30 $60.94 $58.59 $63.29
2025-05-31 $60.96 $58.61 $63.3
2025-06-01 $60.99 $58.64 $63.33
2025-06-02 $60.95 $58.6 $63.29
2025-06-03 $61.0 $58.66 $63.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-05-30), reaching $60.94.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-30 and 2025-06-03.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics suggest a neutral sentiment with potential price fluctuations. The $64.90 for Brent and $61.84 for WTI indicate a Brent premium of $3.06, which may signal opportunities for spread trading. The support and resistance levels are crucial to monitor, particularly if prices approach Fibonacci retracement levels. With a slight decrease in speculative positioning (-4,897 contracts), traders should be cautious of potential market reversals as non-commercial traders often lead price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With commercial crude stocks decreasing by -2,795 million barrels, producers should consider this bullish signal for potential pricing power in the near term. The current hedging strategies may need to be reassessed in light of the inventory levels and market sentiment, which is currently neutral. Producers should also monitor geopolitical developments, especially regarding U.S. sanctions against Russia, as these could impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices hovering around $61.84 and $64.90 respectively. The supply reliability risks linked to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels are crucial considerations for procurement strategies. Given the neutral sentiment in the market, it may be prudent for consumers to explore hedging options to mitigate the impact of price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of factors: a neutral overall sentiment, decreasing commercial crude stocks, and a bearish outlook on demand due to global uncertainties. The Brent-WTI spread indicates diverging supply/demand dynamics, which could signal shifts in trading strategies. Analysts should focus on the implications of the CFTC positioning data, suggesting a weakening bullish sentiment among speculators, which may lead to market corrections if extreme positioning occurs. Overall, the market remains in a state of flux, warranting close monitoring of geopolitical developments and inventory changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-29 23:47

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