Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-31 22:19

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.9 $0.25
WTI: $60.79 $0.15
Spread: $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.79
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.56

MA(20): $61.02

Current Price is 60.79, 9 day MA 61.56, 20 day MA 61.02

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3524

Signal: -0.4321

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.81

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 299,859

Avg (20d): 265,626

Ratio: 1.13

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 23.6

%D: 37.19

Stochastic %K: 23.6, %D: 37.19. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.09

+DI: 17.2

-DI: 20.06

ADX: 17.09 (+DI: 17.2, -DI: 20.06). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -76.4

Williams %R: -76.4 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 64.42

Middle: 61.02

Lower: 57.62

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 64.42, Middle: 61.02, Lower: 57.62

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.90, change $-0.25. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $60.79, change $-0.15. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.9
0.25
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$60.79
0.15
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.11
Brent premium of $3.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins across different regions.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions and ensure the sustainability of oil prices.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains optimistic in the short-term, driven by anticipated demand growth."
"We are closely observing the economic indicators and will adjust our strategies accordingly to support market stability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.014
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 45
Last Updated: 2025-05-31 22:18:32

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.33
Daily: 0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly: 0.4 (0.4%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

5911.69
Daily: -0.48 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 108.87 (1.88%)

VIX

18.57
Daily: -0.61 (-3.18%)
Weekly: -3.72 (-16.69%)

GOLD

3288.9
Daily: -28.2 (-0.85%)
Weekly: -74.7 (-2.22%)

COPPER

4.65
Daily: -0.0 (-0.02%)
Weekly: -0.15 (-3.2%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.79
Closest Support: $59.17 2.66% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 1.46% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.79
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-31 22:18:33
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-31 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-01 $60.84 $58.56 $63.12
2025-06-02 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-03 $60.86 $58.58 $63.15
2025-06-04 $60.87 $58.59 $63.15

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-05-31), reaching $60.81.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-31 and 2025-06-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $68.98/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46/b for ICE Brent, suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term. The $3.11 Brent-WTI spread indicates ongoing differences in supply dynamics, which may present risks for traders focused on arbitrage opportunities.

The market is showing signs of optimism in the short term as the forward curves strengthen into backwardation. Traders should monitor support levels around $60.79 for WTI and $63.90 for Brent, as these could serve as critical points for potential rebounds. However, the risk of volatility remains due to geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the projected global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should align their production planning with these forecasts. The recent decline in crude inventories, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, indicates a tightening market, which could support future price increases.

Producers may consider hedging strategies given the bearish sentiment reflected in the market. The balance of supply and demand is shifting, with 42.6 mb/d demand for DoC crude expected in 2025, suggesting potential for price stabilization. Monitoring inventory levels will be crucial for operational adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude oil prices remain volatile, currently averaging $62.96/b for WTI. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $3.11 signals changing dynamics that could affect procurement strategies.

Supply reliability may be impacted by geopolitical factors and the current state of inventories, which are below the 2015–2019 average. Consumers may want to explore hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price spikes, especially as global demand is projected to rise in the coming years.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The crude oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, as reflected in the recent price declines across various benchmarks. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand forecasts, yet the inventory levels remain concerningly low compared to historical averages.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the risk factors stemming from geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts. The mixed signals from technical indicators and positioning data suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities, the overall outlook remains cautious. The sentiment from news articles indicates a neutral stance, but with underlying concerns about demand and supply uncertainties.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-31 22:19

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