Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-04 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.63 $1.0
WTI: $63.41 $0.89
Spread: $2.22 (Brent premium of $2.22)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.67
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.75

MA(20): $61.72

Current Price is 62.67, 9 day MA 61.75, 20 day MA 61.72

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0021

Signal: -0.262

Days since crossover: 18

MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.76

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.76 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,859

Avg (20d): 256,196

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.84

%D: 70.26

Stochastic %K: 65.84, %D: 70.26. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.88

+DI: 20.77

-DI: 16.63

ADX: 15.88 (+DI: 20.77, -DI: 16.63). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.16

Williams %R: -34.16 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.26

Middle: 61.72

Lower: 59.19

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.26, Middle: 61.72, Lower: 59.19

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $65.63, change $+1.00. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.41, change $+0.89. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.22 (Brent premium of $2.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.63
1.0
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$63.41
0.89
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.22
Brent premium of $2.22

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuating supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and market adjustments.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite challenges.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product market trends.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a proactive stance on ensuring market stability, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the challenges posed by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics. The organization remains committed to adjusting production levels as necessary to support price stability and meet global demand effectively.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has been revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's role in the global oil market."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.025
Confidence: 1.38
Articles Analyzed: 42
Last Updated: 2025-06-04 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.03

Top News Topics

Supply

8 articles

Geopolitical

6 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.82
Daily: -0.43 (-0.43%)
Weekly: -0.46 (-0.46%)

US_10Y

4.36
Daily: -0.1 (-2.13%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.33%)

SP500

5970.81
Daily: 0.44 (0.01%)
Weekly: 58.64 (0.99%)

VIX

17.61
Daily: -0.08 (-0.45%)
Weekly: -1.57 (-8.19%)

GOLD

3398.2
Daily: 48.0 (1.43%)
Weekly: 81.1 (2.44%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: 0.09 (1.92%)
Weekly: 0.25 (5.34%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.67
Closest Support: $61.68 1.58% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 1.64% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.85
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-04 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-05 $62.88 $60.65 $65.11
2025-06-06 $62.85 $60.62 $65.08
2025-06-07 $62.74 $60.51 $64.97
2025-06-08 $62.7 $60.47 $64.93
2025-06-09 $62.74 $60.51 $64.97

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-06-05), reaching $62.88.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-05 and 2025-06-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a neutral sentiment, with the Brent-WTI spread at $2.22, reflecting differing supply/demand dynamics. The support levels for WTI are around $62.00 and resistance levels at $66.50. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions and oversupply concerns, as indicated by recent news sentiment. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread may present short-term opportunities for arbitrage, particularly as market sentiment shifts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should adjust their production planning accordingly. The impact of inventory levels is crucial, as OECD commercial crude stocks are 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, indicating potential tightness in the market. Producers may consider hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility, especially in light of the current market sentiment and fluctuating refinery margins.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations are expected as WTI and Brent prices are currently hovering around $63.41 and $65.63, respectively. Consumers should remain vigilant regarding supply reliability risks due to geopolitical concerns and the declining inventory levels in OECD regions. It may be prudent to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage potential cost increases in the near term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is exhibiting a complex interplay of factors. The bearish sentiment from the recent price declines contrasts with bullish forecasts for global demand growth. Key driving factors include OPEC's production adjustments, geopolitical tensions, and changing inventory levels. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread indicates shifting dynamics that may necessitate outlook shifts in forecasting models. Analysts should closely monitor these elements to provide informed insights into market trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-04 23:47

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