Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-05 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.86 $0.77
WTI: $62.85 $0.56
Spread: $2.01 (Brent premium of $2.01)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $63.15
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.99

MA(20): $61.99

Current Price is 63.15, 9 day MA 61.99, 20 day MA 61.99

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.1075

Signal: -0.1858

Days since crossover: 19

MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 54.62

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 54.62 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,081

Avg (20d): 257,501

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 76.63

%D: 76.33

Stochastic %K: 76.63, %D: 76.33. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.22

+DI: 19.77

-DI: 16.6

ADX: 15.22 (+DI: 19.77, -DI: 16.6). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -23.37

Williams %R: -23.37 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.98

Middle: 61.99

Lower: 60.0

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.98, Middle: 61.99, Lower: 60.0

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $64.86, change $-0.77. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $62.85, change $-0.56. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.01 (Brent premium of $2.01). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.86
0.77
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$62.85
0.56
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.01
Brent premium of $2.01

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates through fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts, while remaining optimistic about short-term market outlooks.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, albeit slightly revised down.
  • Changes in tanker market dynamics and crude imports/exports across major economies.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability amidst ongoing fluctuations in oil prices and economic uncertainties. The organization is closely monitoring global oil demand and supply dynamics, while adjusting its production strategies to align with market conditions and maintain a balanced approach to its output levels.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.049
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 50
Last Updated: 2025-06-05 23:47:34

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.05

Top News Topics

Supply

8 articles

Geopolitical

5 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.78
Daily: -0.01 (-0.01%)
Weekly: -0.55 (-0.55%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: 0.03 (0.66%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.5%)

SP500

5939.3
Daily: -31.51 (-0.53%)
Weekly: 27.61 (0.47%)

VIX

18.48
Daily: 0.87 (4.94%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-0.48%)

GOLD

3391.3
Daily: 17.8 (0.53%)
Weekly: 102.4 (3.11%)

COPPER

4.93
Daily: 0.07 (1.35%)
Weekly: 0.28 (5.96%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.15
Closest Support: $61.68 2.33% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 0.87% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.37
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-05 23:47:35
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-06 $63.33 $61.09 $65.56
2025-06-07 $63.2 $60.96 $65.44
2025-06-08 $63.16 $60.93 $65.4
2025-06-09 $63.19 $60.95 $65.42
2025-06-10 $63.16 $60.92 $65.39

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-06-06), reaching $63.33.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-06 and 2025-06-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements show a notable decline in Crude Oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b and WTI at $62.96/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $2.01, indicating a shift in supply dynamics that could provide short-term trading opportunities.

The market sentiment is currently neutral, with a sentiment score of -0.049. However, the managed money positioning has weakened, suggesting caution in bullish strategies. Traders should monitor support levels around $60/b and resistance around $65/b for potential breakout or reversal signals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should consider adjusting production planning accordingly. However, the supply forecast from non-DoC countries indicates a moderate increase of 0.8 mb/d, which could pressure prices if demand does not meet expectations.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb suggests a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Market sentiment remains neutral, but producers should remain vigilant about geopolitical developments that could impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. Current prices are at $62.85/b for WTI and $64.86/b for Brent, indicating a risk of higher procurement costs if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels remain low.

The supply reliability risks are compounded by the ongoing fluctuations in geopolitical tensions and the recent decline in global refinery intake, which dropped by 1.2 mb/d. Consumers should consider hedging options to protect against price spikes in the short term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a slight bearish outlook due to declining prices and inventory increases. The fundamental balance remains delicate, with demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d but tempered by rising supply from non-DoC countries.

Key drivers include the weakening managed money positioning and the geopolitical landscape that continues to influence market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor inventory levels and global economic indicators as potential catalysts for market outlook shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-05 23:48

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