Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-06 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.34 $0.48
WTI: $63.37 $0.52
Spread: $1.97 (Brent premium of $1.97)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.77
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.38

MA(20): $62.24

Current Price is 64.77, 9 day MA 62.38, 20 day MA 62.24

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3204

Signal: -0.0818

Days since crossover: 20

MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 60.18

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 60.18 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 280,964

Avg (20d): 268,817

Ratio: 1.05

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 99.41

%D: 83.62

Stochastic %K: 99.41, %D: 83.62. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.29

+DI: 20.69

-DI: 14.94

ADX: 15.29 (+DI: 20.69, -DI: 14.94). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -0.59

Williams %R: -0.59 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 64.36

Middle: 62.24

Lower: 60.12

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 64.36, Middle: 62.24, Lower: 60.12

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $65.34, change $+0.48. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.37, change $+0.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.97 (Brent premium of $1.97). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.34
0.48
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$63.37
0.52
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.97
Brent premium of $1.97

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, reflecting a steady growth trend in the global economy and stable oil demand forecasts despite recent market fluctuations.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth revised down slightly.
  • Mixed performance in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to achieve a balanced supply-demand dynamic.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.061
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-06-06 23:47:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.06

Top News Topics

Supply

7 articles

Geopolitical

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.2
Daily: 0.46 (0.47%)
Weekly: 0.5 (0.51%)

US_10Y

4.51
Daily: 0.12 (2.64%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.08%)

SP500

6000.36
Daily: 61.06 (1.03%)
Weekly: 64.42 (1.09%)

VIX

16.77
Daily: -1.71 (-9.25%)
Weekly: -1.59 (-8.66%)

GOLD

3331.0
Daily: -19.7 (-0.59%)
Weekly: -39.6 (-1.17%)

COPPER

4.83
Daily: -0.08 (-1.65%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.04%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.77
Closest Support: $63.7 1.65% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.72 1.47% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7 Support
0.618 $65.72 Resistance
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.37
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-06 23:47:40
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-06 $63.32 $61.09 $65.56
2025-06-07 $63.2 $60.96 $65.44
2025-06-08 $63.16 $60.92 $65.4
2025-06-09 $63.18 $60.95 $65.42
2025-06-10 $63.16 $60.92 $65.39

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-06-06), reaching $63.32.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-06 and 2025-06-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements indicate a bearish trend, with the OPEC Reference Basket declining to an average of $68.98/b and WTI averaging $62.96/b. The support level for WTI appears to be around $62.00/b, while resistance may be tested at $65.00/b. The Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $1.97 reflects a convergence of U.S. supply and demand dynamics and may indicate short-term opportunities, especially as managed money positioning shows a bullish sentiment with a net position of 144,631 contracts and a weekly increase of +40,684 contracts. Traders should remain cautious of volatility due to geopolitical risks and monitor the supply-demand balance closely.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should consider this when planning production levels. The impact of inventory levels is critical, as OECD commercial crude stocks are currently 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, indicating potential tightness in supply. Hedging strategies should be aligned with the current market sentiment, which is bearish, particularly given the recent decline in crude prices. The focus on maintaining efficient production and adjusting hedging strategies could mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and inventory levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices have shown recent declines. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels may impact procurement strategies. With U.S. crude imports declining by 0.1 mb/d, maintaining a close watch on supply dynamics will be essential. As product markets show mixed signals, refineries may need to adjust operations to maximize margins while considering hedging options to mitigate cost increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish and bullish factors. Demand growth remains stable at 1.3 mb/d, while supply from non-DoC countries shows signs of growth, albeit revised downwards. The technical indicators reflect increasing volatility, particularly with the managed money positioning indicating a shift towards bullish sentiment. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical factors and economic forecasts as they assess potential shifts in market dynamics. The outlook remains cautious, with a need for close monitoring of supply-demand balances and market sentiment.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-06 23:48

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