Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-07 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.47 $1.13
WTI: $64.58 $1.21
Spread: $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.58
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.35

MA(20): $62.23

Current Price is 64.58, 9 day MA 62.35, 20 day MA 62.23

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3052

Signal: -0.0848

Days since crossover: 20

MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 59.59

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 59.59 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 232,423

Avg (20d): 266,390

Ratio: 0.87

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 95.65

%D: 82.37

Stochastic %K: 95.65, %D: 82.37. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.29

+DI: 20.69

-DI: 14.94

ADX: 15.29 (+DI: 20.69, -DI: 14.94). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -4.35

Williams %R: -4.35 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 64.31

Middle: 62.23

Lower: 60.15

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 64.31, Middle: 62.23, Lower: 60.15

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.47, change $+1.13. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.58, change $+1.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.47
1.13
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$64.58
1.21
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.89
Brent premium of $1.89

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic outlook on the oil market, highlighting steady growth in global oil demand despite recent economic adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Revised global economic growth forecasts with slight downward adjustments.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, albeit revised downwards.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker freight rates indicating mixed market conditions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements Not Mentioned N/A

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions and ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments." - OPEC Report
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years." - OPEC Report

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.018
Confidence: 1.41
Articles Analyzed: 38
Last Updated: 2025-06-07 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.02

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Geopolitical

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.19
Daily: 0.45 (0.46%)
Weekly: 0.49 (0.5%)

US_10Y

4.51
Daily: 0.12 (2.64%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.08%)

SP500

6000.36
Daily: 61.06 (1.03%)
Weekly: 64.42 (1.09%)

VIX

16.77
Daily: -1.71 (-9.25%)
Weekly: -1.59 (-8.66%)

GOLD

3322.7
Daily: -28.0 (-0.84%)
Weekly: -47.9 (-1.42%)

COPPER

4.83
Daily: -0.08 (-1.7%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.09%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.58
Closest Support: $63.7 1.36% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.72 1.77% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7 Support
0.618 $65.72 Resistance
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.58
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-07 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-07 $64.43 $62.18 $66.68
2025-06-08 $64.36 $62.12 $66.61
2025-06-09 $64.38 $62.14 $66.63
2025-06-10 $64.33 $62.09 $66.58
2025-06-11 $64.27 $62.02 $66.52

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-06-07), reaching $64.43.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-07 and 2025-06-11.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price decline in April indicates potential volatility in the market, particularly with the Brent and WTI contracts settling at $66.46 and $62.96 respectively. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $1.89 suggests a tightening in the supply-demand dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities as traders react to market sentiment.

With the near-term backwardation in futures contracts, traders may want to watch for potential support levels around $66.00 for Brent and $62.00 for WTI. Conversely, resistance could be encountered at $70.00 for Brent and $65.00 for WTI, should the market shift positively.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The supply-demand balance indicates a revised upward demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This could influence production planning strategies, suggesting that producers may want to optimize output in response to anticipated demand increases.

However, with OECD commercial crude stocks rising to 1,323 mb, producers should consider hedging strategies to manage price volatility and protect margins. The market sentiment remains cautious, which could impact pricing strategies and operational decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The fluctuations in WTI and Brent prices may lead to input cost fluctuations for consumers. With recent prices at $66.47 for Brent and $64.58 for WTI, procurement strategies should be adjusted to mitigate risks associated with potential price spikes.

Additionally, the supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories should be a consideration in procurement planning. Consumers may need to evaluate hedging options to secure favorable pricing and ensure supply stability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment due to rising inventories and bullish signals from tightening spreads and demand forecasts. The fundamentals suggest a complex interplay between supply increases from non-DoC countries and OPEC+ output strategies.

Analysts should focus on the market positioning reflected in the CFTC data, where managed money is showing a strengthening position. This could indicate potential price movements that warrant close monitoring for shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-07 23:47

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