Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-08 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.47 $1.13
WTI: $64.58 $1.21
Spread: $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.5
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.76

MA(20): $62.41

Current Price is 64.5, 9 day MA 62.76, 20 day MA 62.41

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.4365

Signal: 0.0195

Days since crossover: 21

MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 59.2

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 59.2 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,305

Avg (20d): 254,873

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 92.97

%D: 90.06

Stochastic %K: 92.97, %D: 90.06. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.39

+DI: 20.61

-DI: 14.72

ADX: 15.39 (+DI: 20.61, -DI: 14.72). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.03

Williams %R: -7.03 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.63

Middle: 62.41

Lower: 60.19

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.63, Middle: 62.41, Lower: 60.19

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.47, change $+1.13. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.58, change $+1.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.47
1.13
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$64.58
1.21
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.89
Brent premium of $1.89

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics while maintaining a focus on market stability.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability amidst ongoing fluctuations in oil prices and demand. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the evolving market landscape and to respond effectively to changes in global economic conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.013
Confidence: 1.44
Articles Analyzed: 26
Last Updated: 2025-06-08 23:47:27

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Geopolitical

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.04
Daily: -0.15 (-0.15%)
Weekly: -0.21 (-0.21%)

US_10Y

4.51
Daily: 0.12 (2.64%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.08%)

SP500

6000.36
Daily: 61.06 (1.03%)
Weekly: 64.42 (1.09%)

VIX

16.77
Daily: -1.71 (-9.25%)
Weekly: -1.59 (-8.66%)

GOLD

3325.5
Daily: 2.8 (0.08%)
Weekly: -24.7 (-0.74%)

COPPER

4.85
Daily: 0.02 (0.36%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.79%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.5
Closest Support: $63.7 1.24% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.72 1.89% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7 Support
0.618 $65.72 Resistance
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.58
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-08 23:47:28
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-07 $64.43 $62.19 $66.68
2025-06-08 $64.37 $62.12 $66.61
2025-06-09 $64.39 $62.14 $66.63
2025-06-10 $64.34 $62.09 $66.58
2025-06-11 $64.28 $62.03 $66.52

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-06-07), reaching $64.43.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-07 and 2025-06-11.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.013, suggests a cautious approach. The Brent crude is currently priced at $66.47 and WTI at $64.58, indicating a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.89. This may reflect geopolitical tensions and differing supply/demand dynamics.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, while potential resistance levels may be observed at $68.98 for Brent. The bullish positioning among managed money traders, with a net position of 144,631 contracts, indicates potential upward pressure, but caution is warranted given the current volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude inventories rising to 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average. This could signal a tightening market, affecting production planning and hedging strategies.

The market sentiment remains cautious, with forecasts for global oil demand projected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, indicating steady demand growth. Producers should remain agile in their operations to adapt to these dynamics while considering hedging strategies to mitigate potential price risks.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $64.58 and $66.47, respectively. The neutral market sentiment may indicate stable pricing in the short term, but consumers must remain vigilant regarding supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical factors and inventory levels.

With the decline in US crude imports and the drop in global refinery intake, procurement strategies should be evaluated to secure supply amidst these shifts. Additionally, the consideration of hedging may be prudent to manage potential cost increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a blend of neutral sentiment and steady demand forecasts, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in the coming years. The managed money positioning suggests potential upward price pressure, although the increased inventory levels pose a counterbalance.

Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical landscape and its impact on supply dynamics,

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-08 23:47

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