Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-09 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.47 $1.13
WTI: $64.58 $1.21
Spread: $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $65.37
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.85

MA(20): $62.45

Current Price is 65.37, 9 day MA 62.85, 20 day MA 62.45

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.5059

Signal: 0.0333

Days since crossover: 21

MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 62.09

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 62.09 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,969

Avg (20d): 258,742

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 95.1

%D: 90.78

Stochastic %K: 95.1, %D: 90.78. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.85

+DI: 22.96

-DI: 14.36

ADX: 15.85 (+DI: 22.96, -DI: 14.36). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -4.9

Williams %R: -4.9 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 64.86

Middle: 62.45

Lower: 60.04

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 64.86, Middle: 62.45, Lower: 60.04

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.47, change $+1.13. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.58, change $+1.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.47
1.13
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$64.58
1.21
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.89
Brent premium of $1.89

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, acknowledging recent price declines while highlighting underlying demand growth and market adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite tariff-related challenges.
  • Stable growth projections for world oil demand in 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stocks (March) 2,740 mb 10.3 mb higher, m-o-m
OECD Commercial Crude Stocks 1,323 mb 139 mb less than 2015–2019 average

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through its production agreements, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to address fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its strategies to support a balanced market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic as we navigate through recent price adjustments and global economic challenges."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.006
Confidence: 1.43
Articles Analyzed: 30
Last Updated: 2025-06-09 23:47:30

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Geopolitical

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.14
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-0.11%)

US_10Y

4.48
Daily: -0.03 (-0.62%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.49%)

SP500

6005.88
Daily: 5.52 (0.09%)
Weekly: 35.51 (0.59%)

VIX

17.16
Daily: 0.39 (2.33%)
Weekly: -0.53 (-3.0%)

GOLD

3328.4
Daily: 5.7 (0.17%)
Weekly: -21.8 (-0.65%)

COPPER

4.88
Daily: 0.05 (1.04%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.47%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.37
Closest Support: $63.7 2.55% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.72 0.54% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7 Support
0.618 $65.72 Resistance
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.29
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-09 23:47:30
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-10 $65.2 $63.04 $67.36
2025-06-11 $65.2 $63.04 $67.36
2025-06-12 $65.15 $62.99 $67.31
2025-06-13 $65.08 $62.92 $67.24
2025-06-14 $65.05 $62.89 $67.21

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-06-10), reaching $65.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-10 and 2025-06-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the short term. However, the narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.89 suggests a slight improvement in price dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $62 for WTI and $66 for Brent, as these could serve as critical points for potential rebounds. The risk factors include geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, which may induce volatility. The managed money positioning indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment, with an increase in net positions, suggesting short-term opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics, with a slight decline in $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, necessitate careful hedging strategies to mitigate pricing risks. Producers should consider the implications of rising crude inventories, which increased by 21.4 mb m-o-m, indicating a potential oversupply situation.

Additionally, with non-DoC liquids supply growth forecasted at 0.8 mb/d in 2025, producers may need to adjust their production planning accordingly. The bearish sentiment reflected in the market could impact profitability, urging producers to analyze their operational costs and adjust accordingly.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, currently at $66.46 for Brent. The steady demand forecast for 2025, with an increase of 1.3 mb/d, suggests a reliable supply; however, geopolitical risks could disrupt this stability.

Additionally, with US product exports increasing by 4% y-o-y, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure supply reliability. Monitoring the support levels in crude prices will be crucial for refining margins and overall operational costs.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish and bullish factors. The decline in prices, coupled with a slight increase in managed money positions, indicates a potential shift in market sentiment. The supply-demand balance remains tight, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025.

Key driving factors include geopolitical tensions affecting supply reliability and the impact of rising inventories on price dynamics. Analysts should focus on the interplay between these factors to forecast potential market shifts and recommend strategic adjustments.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-09 23:48

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