Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-10 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.04 $0.57
WTI: $65.29 $0.71
Spread: $1.75 (Brent premium of $1.75)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 436,059 (0)
Net Imports: 2,439 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.92
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.19

MA(20): $62.59

Current Price is 64.92, 9 day MA 63.19, 20 day MA 62.59

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.6165

Signal: 0.149

Days since crossover: 22

MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 59.97

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 59.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,466

Avg (20d): 254,168

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 91.04

%D: 94.74

Stochastic %K: 91.04, %D: 94.74. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.12

+DI: 21.46

-DI: 13.92

ADX: 16.12 (+DI: 21.46, -DI: 13.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -8.96

Williams %R: -8.96 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.2

Middle: 62.59

Lower: 59.99

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.2, Middle: 62.59, Lower: 59.99

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13408.0 13401.0 13100.0 12466.67
Crude Imports 6346.0 6351.0 6769.0 6537.33
Crude Exports 3907.0 4301.0 4225.0 3069.33
Refinery Inputs 16998.0 16328.0 17083.0 16726.0
Net Imports 2439.0 2050.0 2544.0 3468.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 436059.0 440363.0 454689.0 443961.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1637159.0 1623724.0 1632473.0 1647017.0
Gasoline Stocks 228300.0 223081.0 228844.0 222648.33
Distillate Stocks 107638.0 103408.0 119288.0 114400.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.04, change $+0.57. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $65.29, change $+0.71. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.75 (Brent premium of $1.75). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.04
0.57
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$65.29
0.71
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.75
Brent premium of $1.75

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth and some adjustments in supply forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC's outlook emphasizes the importance of maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also considering the potential impacts of geopolitical developments and economic trends on oil prices.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.016
Confidence: 1.38
Articles Analyzed: 34
Last Updated: 2025-06-10 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.02

Top News Topics

Supply

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.13
Daily: 0.19 (0.19%)
Weekly: 0.34 (0.34%)

US_10Y

4.47
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.5%)

SP500

6038.81
Daily: 32.93 (0.55%)
Weekly: 68.0 (1.14%)

VIX

16.95
Daily: -0.21 (-1.22%)
Weekly: -0.66 (-3.75%)

GOLD

3362.8
Daily: 30.7 (0.92%)
Weekly: -10.7 (-0.32%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: -0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.64%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.92
Closest Support: $63.7 1.88% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.72 1.23% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7 Support
0.618 $65.72 Resistance
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-10 23:47:26
Next Trading Day: UP 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-11 $64.98 $63.01 $66.96
2025-06-12 $64.94 $62.96 $66.91
2025-06-13 $64.87 $62.89 $66.84
2025-06-14 $64.84 $62.86 $66.81
2025-06-15 $64.86 $62.88 $66.83

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-06-11), reaching $64.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-11 and 2025-06-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral market sentiment and a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.75 suggest a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. Traders should note the potential support levels around the recent lows of $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent. The short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthening managed money positioning, which indicates a potential upward price movement. However, the risk of volatility remains, particularly with fluctuating inventory levels and geopolitical tensions impacting supply.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, which could influence production planning. With a decline in production from DoC countries and a revised upward demand forecast for crude, producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. The market sentiment indicates a cautious approach is warranted, particularly given the potential supply disruptions from geopolitical factors.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI around $62.96 and Brent at $66.46. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to lower US crude imports and the decline in OECD crude imports. It may be beneficial to explore procurement strategies that hedge against price increases, especially with the ongoing shifts in global supply dynamics.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bearish price movements and optimistic short-term outlooks. Key drivers include the steady global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and the revised down forecasts for non-DoC liquids supply. The market sentiment remains neutral, suggesting that while there are bullish indicators from managed money positioning, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and inventory levels could shift the outlook rapidly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-10 23:47

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved