Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-13 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $69.36 $0.41
WTI: $68.04 $0.11
Spread: $1.32 (Brent premium of $1.32)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 432,415 (0)
Net Imports: 2,890 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $73.18
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $65.98

MA(20): $63.64

Current Price is 73.18, 9 day MA 65.98, 20 day MA 63.64

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 1.8004

Signal: 0.7537

Days since crossover: 25

MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 77.63

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 77.63 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 682,870

Avg (20d): 302,642

Ratio: 2.26

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 75.17

%D: 86.51

Stochastic %K: 75.17, %D: 86.51. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.72

+DI: 43.39

-DI: 7.97

ADX: 23.72 (+DI: 43.39, -DI: 7.97). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -24.83

Williams %R: -24.83 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 69.68

Middle: 63.64

Lower: 57.6

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 69.68, Middle: 63.64, Lower: 57.6

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $69.36, change $-0.41. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $68.04, change $-0.11. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.32 (Brent premium of $1.32). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.36
0.41
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$68.04
0.11
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.32
Brent premium of $1.32

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, reflecting adjustments in demand and supply forecasts amid ongoing economic developments.

Key Themes

  • Crude oil price movements show a significant decline across various benchmarks.
  • Global economic growth forecasts have been slightly revised down, impacting oil demand expectations.
  • World oil demand is projected to grow steadily, with non-OECD countries driving most of the increase.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts have been adjusted downwards for the upcoming years.
  • OECD commercial oil inventories remain below the 2015–2019 average, indicating tighter market conditions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively. The organization is closely monitoring both demand and supply dynamics to ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in our market outlook."
"Despite some downward revisions in economic growth forecasts, the fundamentals of the oil market remain supportive."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.022
Confidence: 1.32
Articles Analyzed: 119
Last Updated: 2025-06-13 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.02

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

7 articles

Geopolitical

20 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.14
Daily: 0.22 (0.22%)
Weekly: -0.8 (-0.81%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.07 (1.54%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.29%)

SP500

5976.97
Daily: -68.29 (-1.13%)
Weekly: -28.91 (-0.48%)

VIX

20.82
Daily: 2.8 (15.54%)
Weekly: 3.66 (21.33%)

GOLD

3452.6
Daily: 71.7 (2.12%)
Weekly: 120.5 (3.62%)

COPPER

4.75
Daily: -0.07 (-1.45%)
Weekly: -0.16 (-3.22%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $73.18
Closest Support: $72.81 0.51% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 6.07% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.04
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-13 23:47:26
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-13 $67.9 $65.71 $70.08
2025-06-14 $67.87 $65.68 $70.06
2025-06-15 $67.82 $65.64 $70.01
2025-06-16 $67.67 $65.49 $69.86
2025-06-17 $67.69 $65.5 $69.87

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-06-13), reaching $67.90.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-13 and 2025-06-17.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.022, indicates limited directional conviction among traders. The Brent-WTI spread at $1.32 suggests that while Brent remains premium, the narrowing spread may imply tightening supply dynamics in the U.S.

The support levels to watch are around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, while resistance could be found near $70.00 as traders assess market reactions to geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.

With managed money net positions increasing by 16,946 contracts, the bullish sentiment among speculators is strengthening, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. Traders should remain cautious of volatility driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ decisions impacting supply.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, now at 42.6 mb/d for 2025. This growth, coupled with a decrease in DoC production by 106 tb/d, suggests a tightening market that producers should leverage for strategic planning.

Inventory levels show a bearish trend, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015-2019 average. This could impact pricing strategies and necessitate adjustments in hedging practices to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. Current prices are at $68.04 for WTI and $69.36 for Brent, with geopolitical tensions posing risks to supply reliability.

The decline in U.S. crude imports and the increase in product exports may tighten supply availability, making it crucial for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price increases and ensure reliable supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with a balance of supply and demand slightly favoring a tightening market due to OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical factors. The increase in managed money positions indicates a potentially bullish outlook, but caution is warranted given the risks associated with demand forecasts, particularly in OECD regions.

The overall market picture suggests that while short-term price movements may be driven by speculation and geopolitical events, longer-term fundamentals remain relatively stable, with demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-13 23:47

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