Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-14 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $74.23 $4.87
WTI: $72.98 $4.94
Spread: $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 432,415 (0)
Net Imports: 2,890 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $72.98
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $65.96

MA(20): $63.63

Current Price is 72.98, 9 day MA 65.96, 20 day MA 63.63

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 1.7845

Signal: 0.7505

Days since crossover: 25

MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 77.37

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 77.37 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 379,394

Avg (20d): 287,468

Ratio: 1.32

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 74.05

%D: 86.14

Stochastic %K: 74.05, %D: 86.14. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.72

+DI: 43.39

-DI: 7.97

ADX: 23.72 (+DI: 43.39, -DI: 7.97). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -25.95

Williams %R: -25.95 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 69.61

Middle: 63.63

Lower: 57.66

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 69.61, Middle: 63.63, Lower: 57.66

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $74.23, change $+4.87. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $72.98, change $+4.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$74.23
4.87
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$72.98
4.94
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.25
Brent premium of $1.25

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates a complex market landscape characterized by fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties. The organization is likely to continue monitoring global demand and supply dynamics closely, adjusting its production strategies as necessary to support price stability.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.02
Confidence: 1.32
Articles Analyzed: 94
Last Updated: 2025-06-14 23:47:18

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.02

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Demand

3 articles

Geopolitical

20 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: 0.26 (0.27%)
Weekly: -0.76 (-0.77%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.07 (1.54%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.29%)

SP500

5976.97
Daily: -68.29 (-1.13%)
Weekly: -28.91 (-0.48%)

VIX

20.82
Daily: 2.8 (15.54%)
Weekly: 3.66 (21.33%)

GOLD

3431.2
Daily: 50.3 (1.49%)
Weekly: 99.1 (2.97%)

COPPER

4.8
Daily: -0.02 (-0.38%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.17%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $72.98
Closest Support: $72.81 0.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 6.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $72.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-14 23:47:19
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-14 $72.88 $70.19 $75.57
2025-06-15 $72.8 $70.11 $75.49
2025-06-16 $72.68 $70.0 $75.37
2025-06-17 $72.62 $69.93 $75.31
2025-06-18 $72.45 $69.76 $75.14

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-06-14), reaching $72.88.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-14 and 2025-06-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate neutral sentiment with potential short-term opportunities as the Brent-WTI spread narrows to $1.25. The support level for WTI is around $62.00, while resistance is observed at $66.50. Traders should monitor the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could lead to sudden volatility. Additionally, the managed money positioning indicates a bullish trend, suggesting that speculative interests may drive prices higher in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the current inventory levels, which show a slight increase in OECD commercial oil stocks. This could suggest a need to adjust production plans to avoid oversupply, particularly as market sentiment remains cautious. Hedging strategies may be prudent, especially with the $68.98/b average OPEC Reference Basket price. The upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025 provides a positive outlook for production adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices stabilize around $72.98 and $74.23, respectively. The geopolitical tensions may pose supply reliability risks, particularly with fluctuating crude imports from key regions. Refiners in the USGC may benefit from stronger margins, but the overall market sentiment indicates caution. It may be wise to consider procurement strategies that account for potential price volatility and inventory management.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of neutral sentiment and bullish positioning among managed money traders. Key driving factors include a slight decline in OPEC production, stable demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, and geopolitical risks that could impact supply chains. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of OPEC's decisions and the evolving global economic landscape, which may shift outlooks as market conditions change.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-14 23:47

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