Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-15 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $74.23 $4.87
WTI: $72.98 $4.94
Spread: $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 432,415 (0)
Net Imports: 2,890 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $73.5
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.08

MA(20): $64.18

Current Price is 73.5, 9 day MA 67.08, 20 day MA 64.18

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 2.2555

Signal: 1.0515

Days since crossover: 26

MACD crossed the line 26 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 78.07

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 78.07 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 53,137

Avg (20d): 284,047

Ratio: 0.19

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 76.96

%D: 79.31

Stochastic %K: 76.96, %D: 79.31. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 26.95

+DI: 38.39

-DI: 7.05

ADX: 26.95 (+DI: 38.39, -DI: 7.05). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -23.04

Williams %R: -23.04 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 71.51

Middle: 64.18

Lower: 56.85

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 71.51, Middle: 64.18, Lower: 56.85

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $74.23, change $+4.87. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $72.98, change $+4.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$74.23
4.87
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$72.98
4.94
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.25
Brent premium of $1.25

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting a steady growth in global demand despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to balance supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its strategies to ensure a stable oil market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting an increase in global oil consumption."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.029
Confidence: 1.34
Articles Analyzed: 78
Last Updated: 2025-06-15 23:47:26

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.03

Top News Topics

Supply

6 articles

Demand

1 articles

Geopolitical

22 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.32
Daily: 0.14 (0.14%)
Weekly: -0.74 (-0.74%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.07 (1.54%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.29%)

SP500

5976.97
Daily: -68.29 (-1.13%)
Weekly: -28.91 (-0.48%)

VIX

20.82
Daily: 2.8 (15.54%)
Weekly: 3.66 (21.33%)

GOLD

3454.1
Daily: 22.9 (0.67%)
Weekly: 133.2 (4.01%)

COPPER

4.8
Daily: -0.0 (-0.07%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.73%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $73.5
Closest Support: $72.81 0.94% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 5.61% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $72.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-15 23:47:27
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.14%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-14 $72.88 $70.19 $75.56
2025-06-15 $72.8 $70.11 $75.48
2025-06-16 $72.68 $69.99 $75.37
2025-06-17 $72.62 $69.93 $75.31
2025-06-18 $72.45 $69.76 $75.14

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2025-06-14), reaching $72.88.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-14 and 2025-06-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment with the OPEC Reference Basket declining by $5.02 to average $68.98/b. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the support levels around $62.96/b (NYMEX WTI) and $66.46/b (ICE Brent), while watching for resistance at $74.23. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.25 suggests a potential convergence in pricing dynamics that could lead to volatility, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions impacting supply. Increased managed money positions reflect a bullish sentiment, indicating potential upward price movement if trends continue.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, indicate a balance that is below historical averages. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in response to the revised downward supply forecasts and the upward revision in demand for DoC crude, projected at 42.6 mb/d for 2025. As market sentiment remains neutral, hedging strategies should focus on mitigating risks associated with potential price volatility from geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile amidst geopolitical tensions. With the risk of supply disruptions highlighted by recent conflicts, procurement strategies may need to adapt to secure reliable supply. The decrease in US crude imports and the steady demand for refined products could affect pricing dynamics, emphasizing the need for robust hedging strategies to protect against unforeseen cost increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a mix of bearish technicals and bullish positioning among managed money traders. The supply-demand balance suggests a slight tightening in the market, with upward revisions in demand forecasts contrasting with downward revisions in non-DoC supply. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, as these could significantly impact market sentiment and price outlooks. The current market sentiment remains neutral, but shifts in positioning could signal changes in trends.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-15 23:47

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