Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-16 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $74.23 $4.87
WTI: $72.98 $4.94
Spread: $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $72.09
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $66.93

MA(20): $64.11

Current Price is 72.09, 9 day MA 66.93, 20 day MA 64.11

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 2.1431

Signal: 1.029

Days since crossover: 26

MACD crossed the line 26 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 73.34

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 73.34 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 20,185

Avg (20d): 299,212

Ratio: 0.07

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 69.07

%D: 76.68

Stochastic %K: 69.07, %D: 76.68. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 26.95

+DI: 40.28

-DI: 7.39

ADX: 26.95 (+DI: 40.28, -DI: 7.39). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -30.93

Williams %R: -30.93 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 71.1

Middle: 64.11

Lower: 57.12

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 71.1, Middle: 64.11, Lower: 57.12

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $74.23, change $+4.87. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $72.98, change $+4.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.25 (Brent premium of $1.25). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$74.23
4.87
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$72.98
4.94
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.25
Brent premium of $1.25

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuating prices and economic adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and stock levels in OECD countries.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) +1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) +1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) +0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) +0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to adjust its strategies accordingly.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.75
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 77
Last Updated: 2025-06-16 23:47:14

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (16 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.13
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -0.92 (-0.93%)

US_10Y

4.45
Daily: 0.03 (0.63%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.49%)

SP500

6033.11
Daily: 56.14 (0.94%)
Weekly: -5.7 (-0.09%)

VIX

19.11
Daily: -1.71 (-8.21%)
Weekly: 2.16 (12.74%)

GOLD

3405.8
Daily: -25.4 (-0.74%)
Weekly: 84.9 (2.56%)

COPPER

4.81
Daily: 0.01 (0.18%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.48%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $72.09
Closest Support: $69.03 4.24% below current price
Closest Resistance: $72.81 1.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03 Support
0.786 $72.81 Resistance
1.0 $77.62

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $71.77
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-16 23:47:17
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.06%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-17 $71.73 $69.02 $74.43
2025-06-18 $71.57 $68.86 $74.27
2025-06-19 $71.54 $68.83 $74.25
2025-06-20 $71.37 $68.66 $74.07
2025-06-21 $71.42 $68.71 $74.12

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2025-06-17), reaching $71.73.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-17 and 2025-06-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-16 23:47

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