Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 0/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $71.48 $5.53

WTI: $68.51 $5.33

Spread: $2.97 (Brent premium of $2.97)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 170,605

Weekly Change: 9,028

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)

Current Price: $65.26

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $71.07

MA(20): $66.55

Current Price is 65.26, 9 day MA 71.07, 20 day MA 66.55

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 2.2774

Signal: 2.1755

Days since crossover: 31

MACD crossed the line 31 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.71

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.71 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,901

Avg (20d): 336,258

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 19.04

%D: 47.29

Stochastic %K: 19.04, %D: 47.29. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 32.19

+DI: 23.02

-DI: 20.19

ADX: 32.19 (+DI: 23.02, -DI: 20.19). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -80.96

Williams %R: -80.96 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 76.23

Middle: 66.55

Lower: 56.88

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 76.23, Middle: 66.55, Lower: 56.88

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13431.0	13428.0	13200.0	12466.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5504.0	6176.0	8304.0	6480.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4361.0	3286.0	3188.0	4177.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16862.0	17226.0	17047.0	16499.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1143.0	2890.0	5116.0	2302.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420942.0	432415.0	459652.0	446242.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1637180.0	1643559.0	1658627.0	1652345.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	230013.0	229804.0	233512.0	223865.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	109398.0	108884.0	123366.0	115256.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $71.48, change $-5.53. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.51, change $-5.33. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.97 (Brent premium of $2.97). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$71.48

5.53

(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$68.51

5.33

(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.97

Brent premium of $2.97

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates through fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts, while maintaining a focus on market stability.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
Stable growth in world oil demand despite adjustments in supply forecasts.
Mixed performance in refining margins across different regions.
Changes in crude and refined product trade dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Crude Oil Production (April)	40.92 mb/d	Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on ensuring market stability amidst fluctuating prices and varying demand forecasts. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its production strategies to align with anticipated market conditions, aiming to balance supply and demand effectively.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has shown resilience, prompting us to revise our forecasts upward." - OPEC Official

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-06-17

Managed Money

170,605

Change: +9,028

8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,783

Change: +12,308

13.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-516,834

Change: -70,688

-26.7% of OI

Open Interest

1,938,664

Change: -78,548

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-17

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,938,664 contracts (-78,548)

Managed Money Net Position: 170,605 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +9,028 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,783 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -516,834 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.65

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 84

Last Updated: 2025-06-24 23:47:29

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.65

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.91

Daily: -0.51 (-0.52%)

Weekly: -0.91 (-0.92%)

US_10Y

4.29

Daily: -0.03 (-0.62%)

Weekly: -0.1 (-2.28%)

SP500

6092.18

Daily: 67.01 (1.11%)

Weekly: 109.46 (1.83%)

VIX

17.48

Daily: -2.35 (-11.85%)

Weekly: -4.12 (-19.07%)

GOLD

3344.3

Daily: -33.4 (-0.99%)

Weekly: -42.3 (-1.25%)

COPPER

4.9

Daily: 0.06 (1.24%)

Weekly: 0.1 (2.14%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.26

Closest Support: $64.01 1.92% below current price

Closest Resistance: $66.76 2.3% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12

0.236 $60.61

0.382 $64.01 Support

0.5 $66.76 Resistance

0.618 $69.51

0.786 $73.42

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73

1.618 $92.79

2.0 $101.68

2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.37

Forecast Generated: 2025-06-24 23:47:32

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.11%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-06-25	$64.3	$60.29	$68.32
2025-06-26	$64.33	$60.32	$68.35
2025-06-27	$64.48	$60.46	$68.49
2025-06-28	$64.83	$60.82	$68.84
2025-06-29	$65.02	$61.01	$69.03

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-06-25), reaching $64.30.
The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.1% between 2025-06-25 and 2025-06-29.
The average confidence interval width is ~12.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.