Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-26 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.68 $0.54
WTI: $64.92 $0.55
Spread: $2.76 (Brent premium of $2.76)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 170,605
Weekly Change: 9,028

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.59
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $70.34

MA(20): $66.9

Current Price is 65.59, 9 day MA 70.34, 20 day MA 66.9

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 1.3725

Signal: 1.9329

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.91

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,794

Avg (20d): 349,367

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 17.78

%D: 15.52

Stochastic %K: 17.78, %D: 15.52. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 27.77

+DI: 21.51

-DI: 20.63

ADX: 27.77 (+DI: 21.51, -DI: 20.63). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.22

Williams %R: -82.22 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 76.05

Middle: 66.9

Lower: 57.75

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 76.05, Middle: 66.9, Lower: 57.75

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13435.0 13431.0 13200.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5944.0 5504.0 7054.0 6396.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4270.0 4361.0 4418.0 4209.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16987.0 16862.0 16765.0 16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1674.0 1143.0 2636.0 2187.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 415106.0 420942.0 457105.0 443317.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1633245.0 1637180.0 1658780.0 1653091.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227938.0 230013.0 231232.0 225833.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 105332.0 109398.0 121640.0 116025.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.68, change $+0.54. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $64.92, change $+0.55. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.76 (Brent premium of $2.76). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.68
0.54
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$64.92
0.55
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.76
Brent premium of $2.76

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amid economic adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across major benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with slight downward revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization anticipates ongoing adjustments to production levels in response to market conditions, aiming to balance the interests of producers and consumers alike.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook reflects traders’ optimism about the short-term recovery, despite the challenges posed by global economic adjustments."
"We will continue to adapt our strategies to maintain stability in the oil market, ensuring that supply meets demand effectively."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-17

Managed Money

170,605
Change: +9,028
8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,783
Change: +12,308
13.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-516,834
Change: -70,688
-26.7% of OI

Open Interest

1,938,664
Change: -78,548

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-17

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,938,664 contracts (-78,548)

Managed Money Net Position: 170,605 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +9,028 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,783 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -516,834 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 123
Last Updated: 2025-06-26 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (21 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.25
Daily: -0.43 (-0.44%)
Weekly: -1.46 (-1.47%)

US_10Y

4.25
Daily: -0.04 (-0.93%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.79%)

SP500

6141.02
Daily: 48.86 (0.8%)
Weekly: 173.18 (2.9%)

VIX

16.59
Daily: -0.17 (-1.01%)
Weekly: -4.03 (-19.54%)

GOLD

3313.8
Daily: -13.3 (-0.4%)
Weekly: -54.3 (-1.61%)

COPPER

5.07
Daily: 0.15 (3.09%)
Weekly: 0.24 (4.95%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.59
Closest Support: $64.01 2.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.76 1.78% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.61
0.382 $64.01 Support
0.5 $66.76 Resistance
0.618 $69.51
0.786 $73.42
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73
1.618 $92.79
2.0 $101.68
2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.24
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-26 23:47:35
Next Trading Day: UP 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-27 $65.39 $61.43 $69.36
2025-06-28 $65.74 $61.78 $69.7
2025-06-29 $65.91 $61.95 $69.88
2025-06-30 $65.88 $61.92 $69.85
2025-07-01 $65.86 $61.9 $69.83

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-06-27), reaching $65.39.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-27 and 2025-07-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-26 23:48

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