Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-01 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.61 $0.16
WTI: $65.11 $0.41
Spread: $2.5 (Brent premium of $2.50)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,487
Weekly Change: 9,118

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.46
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.69

MA(20): $67.47

Current Price is 65.46, 9 day MA 67.69, 20 day MA 67.47

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.5956

Signal: 1.3673

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.8

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.8 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,879

Avg (20d): 328,070

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 10.14

%D: 9.47

Stochastic %K: 10.14, %D: 9.47. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 22.88

+DI: 20.4

-DI: 19.52

ADX: 22.88 (+DI: 20.4, -DI: 19.52). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -89.86

Williams %R: -89.86 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.57

Middle: 67.47

Lower: 59.37

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.57, Middle: 67.47, Lower: 59.37

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13435.0 13431.0 13200.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5944.0 5504.0 7054.0 6396.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4270.0 4361.0 4418.0 4209.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16987.0 16862.0 16765.0 16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1674.0 1143.0 2636.0 2187.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 415106.0 420942.0 457105.0 443317.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1633245.0 1637180.0 1658780.0 1653091.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227938.0 230013.0 231232.0 225833.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 105332.0 109398.0 121640.0 116025.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.61, change $-0.16. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $65.11, change $-0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.5 (Brent premium of $2.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.61
0.16
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$65.11
0.41
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.5
Brent premium of $2.50

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, reflecting a steady growth in global demand despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product markets.
  • Changes in OECD commercial oil inventories and their implications.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned
Crude Oil Production Adjustment Decreased by 106 tb/d April, m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively in response to evolving demand dynamics and economic conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude has been revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-24

Managed Money

161,487
Change: -9,118
8.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,118
Change: +335
13.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-528,660
Change: -11,826
-26.9% of OI

Open Interest

1,961,998
Change: 23,334

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-24

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,961,998 contracts (+23,334)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,487 contracts (8.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,118 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,118 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -528,660 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-07-01 23:47:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

96.68
Daily: -0.2 (-0.21%)
Weekly: -1.0 (-1.02%)

US_10Y

4.25
Daily: 0.02 (0.5%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.98%)

SP500

6198.01
Daily: -6.94 (-0.11%)
Weekly: 105.85 (1.74%)

VIX

16.83
Daily: 0.1 (0.6%)
Weekly: 0.07 (0.42%)

GOLD

3349.1
Daily: 54.7 (1.66%)
Weekly: 22.0 (0.66%)

COPPER

5.11
Daily: 0.08 (1.64%)
Weekly: 0.2 (4.06%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.46
Closest Support: $64.01 2.22% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.76 1.99% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.61
0.382 $64.01 Support
0.5 $66.76 Resistance
0.618 $69.51
0.786 $73.42
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73
1.618 $92.79
2.0 $101.68
2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-01 23:47:37
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-02 $65.42 $61.47 $69.37
2025-07-03 $65.41 $61.46 $69.35
2025-07-04 $65.39 $61.45 $69.34
2025-07-05 $65.41 $61.46 $69.36
2025-07-06 $65.39 $61.45 $69.34

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-07-02), reaching $65.42.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-02 and 2025-07-06.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-01 23:48

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