Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 0/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.8 $0.31

WTI: $67.0 $0.45

Spread: $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,487

Weekly Change: 9,118

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)

Current Price: $66.5

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $65.73

MA(20): $68.04

Current Price is 66.5, 9 day MA 65.73, 20 day MA 68.04

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.476

Signal: 0.9603

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.39

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.39 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 56,217

Avg (20d): 324,524

Ratio: 0.17

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.36

%D: 20.72

Stochastic %K: 17.36, %D: 20.72. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.5

+DI: 21.78

-DI: 18.4

ADX: 20.5 (+DI: 21.78, -DI: 18.4). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.64

Williams %R: -82.64 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.36

Middle: 68.04

Lower: 60.72

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.36, Middle: 68.04, Lower: 60.72

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13433.0	13435.0	13200.0	12566.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6919.0	5944.0	6611.0	6808.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2305.0	4270.0	3910.0	3638.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	17105.0	16987.0	16532.0	16420.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4614.0	1674.0	2701.0	3170.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	418951.0	415106.0	460696.0	441507.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1642845.0	1633245.0	1668222.0	1647259.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	232126.0	227938.0	233886.0	223413.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	103622.0	105332.0	121263.0	114743.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.8, change $-0.31. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.0, change $-0.45. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.8

0.31

(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.0

0.45

(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.8

Brent premium of $1.80

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth despite recent economic fluctuations.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Stable global economic growth forecasts, with minor adjustments.
Consistent growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Changes in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	As of March
Compliance Levels	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, indicating a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand, while closely monitoring global economic developments that could impact oil consumption.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic as we navigate through fluctuating economic conditions."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-06-24

Managed Money

161,487

Change: -9,118

8.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,118

Change: +335

13.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-528,660

Change: -11,826

-26.9% of OI

Open Interest

1,961,998

Change: 23,334

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-24

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,961,998 contracts (+23,334)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,487 contracts (8.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,118 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,118 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -528,660 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 88

Last Updated: 2025-07-04 23:47:29

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

96.99

Daily: -0.19 (-0.2%)

Weekly: 0.11 (0.11%)

US_10Y

4.35

Daily: 0.05 (1.28%)

Weekly: 0.07 (1.52%)

SP500

6279.35

Daily: 51.93 (0.83%)

Weekly: 106.28 (1.72%)

VIX

17.48

Daily: 1.1 (6.72%)

Weekly: 0.75 (4.48%)

GOLD

3346.5

Daily: 14.9 (0.45%)

Weekly: 52.1 (1.58%)

COPPER

5.06

Daily: -0.03 (-0.68%)

Weekly: 0.03 (0.65%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.5

Closest Support: $64.01 3.74% below current price

Closest Resistance: $66.76 0.39% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12

0.236 $60.61

0.382 $64.01 Support

0.5 $66.76 Resistance

0.618 $69.51

0.786 $73.42

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73

1.618 $92.79

2.0 $101.68

2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.0

Forecast Generated: 2025-07-04 23:47:30

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.04%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-07-04	$66.98	$62.97	$70.98
2025-07-05	$66.97	$62.96	$70.98
2025-07-06	$66.93	$62.92	$70.93
2025-07-07	$66.84	$62.83	$70.85
2025-07-08	$66.86	$62.85	$70.87

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-07-04), reaching $66.98.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-04 and 2025-07-08.
The average confidence interval width is ~12.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.