Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-06 12:40

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.8 $0.31
WTI: $67.0 $0.45
Spread: $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,487
Weekly Change: 9,118

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.5
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $65.73

MA(20): $68.04

Current Price is 66.5, 9 day MA 65.73, 20 day MA 68.04

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.476

Signal: 0.9603

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.39

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.39 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 56,217

Avg (20d): 324,524

Ratio: 0.17

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.36

%D: 20.72

Stochastic %K: 17.36, %D: 20.72. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.5

+DI: 21.78

-DI: 18.4

ADX: 20.5 (+DI: 21.78, -DI: 18.4). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.64

Williams %R: -82.64 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.36

Middle: 68.04

Lower: 60.72

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.36, Middle: 68.04, Lower: 60.72

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13433.0 13435.0 13200.0 12566.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6919.0 5944.0 6611.0 6808.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2305.0 4270.0 3910.0 3638.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17105.0 16987.0 16532.0 16420.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4614.0 1674.0 2701.0 3170.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418951.0 415106.0 460696.0 441507.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1642845.0 1633245.0 1668222.0 1647259.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232126.0 227938.0 233886.0 223413.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 103622.0 105332.0 121263.0 114743.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.8, change $-0.31. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.0, change $-0.45. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.8
0.31
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.0
0.45
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.8
Brent premium of $1.80

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over market dynamics amidst fluctuating oil prices and varying economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite some downward revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Crude Oil Production by DoC Countries (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support price stability and address any emerging imbalances in the market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-24

Managed Money

161,487
Change: -9,118
8.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,118
Change: +335
13.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-528,660
Change: -11,826
-26.9% of OI

Open Interest

1,961,998
Change: 23,334

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-24

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,961,998 contracts (+23,334)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,487 contracts (8.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,118 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,118 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -528,660 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 49
Last Updated: 2025-07-06 12:39:55

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

96.99
Daily: -0.19 (-0.2%)
Weekly: 0.11 (0.11%)

US_10Y

4.35
Daily: 0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.52%)

SP500

6279.35
Daily: 51.93 (0.83%)
Weekly: 106.28 (1.72%)

VIX

17.48
Daily: 1.1 (6.72%)
Weekly: 0.75 (4.48%)

GOLD

3346.5
Daily: 14.9 (0.45%)
Weekly: 52.1 (1.58%)

COPPER

5.06
Daily: -0.03 (-0.68%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.65%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.5
Closest Support: $64.01 3.74% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.76 0.39% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.61
0.382 $64.01 Support
0.5 $66.76 Resistance
0.618 $69.51
0.786 $73.42
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73
1.618 $92.79
2.0 $101.68
2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.5
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-06 12:39:57
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-05 $66.5 $62.48 $70.51
2025-07-06 $66.45 $62.44 $70.46
2025-07-07 $66.37 $62.36 $70.39
2025-07-08 $66.4 $62.39 $70.42
2025-07-09 $66.43 $62.41 $70.44

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-07-05), reaching $66.50.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-05 and 2025-07-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices presents both opportunities and risks for traders. The $68.80 Brent and $67.00 WTI prices indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.80, reflecting regional supply dynamics. The managed money net position has decreased, suggesting a weakening bullish sentiment. Traders should monitor Fibonacci levels for potential breakout points, particularly around the recent lows. The short-term outlook appears cautiously optimistic, but volatility may increase as market sentiment fluctuates.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, indicate a tightening supply-demand dynamic. Producers should consider adjusting production planning in response to the declining crude prices and hedging strategies to mitigate financial exposure. The market sentiment remains bullish, yet the managed money positioning suggests caution. Companies should remain agile to adapt to geopolitical risks that may affect supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $67.00 and $68.80, respectively. The geopolitical landscape could introduce supply reliability risks, especially with recent sanctions affecting oil flows. Additionally, the decline in product imports may lead to tighter availability, impacting procurement strategies. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to secure favorable pricing in the short term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish sentiment driven by demand forecasts and bearish pressures from declining prices and managed money positioning. Key factors include stable global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, offset by a revised down supply forecast. Analysts should watch for shifts in market dynamics as geopolitical tensions and inventory levels evolve, potentially impacting future price trajectories.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-06 12:40

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