Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-06 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.8 $0.31
WTI: $67.0 $0.45
Spread: $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,487
Weekly Change: 9,118

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.09
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $65.68

MA(20): $68.02

Current Price is 66.09, 9 day MA 65.68, 20 day MA 68.02

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.4433

Signal: 0.9537

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.24

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 17,833

Avg (20d): 322,605

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 14.51

%D: 19.77

Stochastic %K: 14.51, %D: 19.77. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.19

+DI: 21.53

-DI: 19.81

ADX: 20.19 (+DI: 21.53, -DI: 19.81). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -85.49

Williams %R: -85.49 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.36

Middle: 68.02

Lower: 60.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.36, Middle: 68.02, Lower: 60.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13433.0 13435.0 13200.0 12566.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6919.0 5944.0 6611.0 6808.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2305.0 4270.0 3910.0 3638.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17105.0 16987.0 16532.0 16420.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4614.0 1674.0 2701.0 3170.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418951.0 415106.0 460696.0 441507.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1642845.0 1633245.0 1668222.0 1647259.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232126.0 227938.0 233886.0 223413.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 103622.0 105332.0 121263.0 114743.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.8, change $-0.31. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.0, change $-0.45. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.8
0.31
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.0
0.45
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.8
Brent premium of $1.80

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady global economic growth and a stable demand outlook despite recent fluctuations in crude prices.

Key Themes

  • Crude oil price movements show a significant decline in April.
  • Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily in the coming years.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts have been revised down.
  • Refinery margins are experiencing mixed trends across different regions.
  • OECD commercial oil inventories remain below the 2015-2019 average.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015-2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the evolving market landscape and ensure a balanced supply-demand dynamic.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-24

Managed Money

161,487
Change: -9,118
8.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,118
Change: +335
13.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-528,660
Change: -11,826
-26.9% of OI

Open Interest

1,961,998
Change: 23,334

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-24

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,961,998 contracts (+23,334)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,487 contracts (8.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,118 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,118 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -528,660 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-07-06 23:47:46

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.1
Daily: -0.08 (-0.09%)
Weekly: 0.22 (0.22%)

US_10Y

4.35
Daily: 0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.52%)

SP500

6279.35
Daily: 51.93 (0.83%)
Weekly: 106.28 (1.72%)

VIX

17.48
Daily: 1.1 (6.72%)
Weekly: 0.75 (4.48%)

GOLD

3321.2
Daily: -10.4 (-0.31%)
Weekly: 26.8 (0.81%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: -0.08 (-1.52%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.21%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.09
Closest Support: $64.01 3.15% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.76 1.01% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.61
0.382 $64.01 Support
0.5 $66.76 Resistance
0.618 $69.51
0.786 $73.42
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.73
1.618 $92.79
2.0 $101.68
2.618 $116.07

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.0
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-06 23:47:49
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-04 $66.98 $62.97 $70.98
2025-07-05 $66.98 $62.97 $70.98
2025-07-06 $66.93 $62.92 $70.93
2025-07-07 $66.84 $62.84 $70.85
2025-07-08 $66.87 $62.86 $70.87

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-07-04), reaching $66.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-04 and 2025-07-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.700. The recent price movements show a decline in the OPEC Reference Basket to an average of $68.98/b, with WTI averaging $62.96/b.

The Brent-WTI spread is at $1.80, reflecting ongoing differences in supply-demand dynamics. Despite the narrowing of this spread, the overall market sentiment remains weak, suggesting potential volatility in the near term.

Traders should monitor for potential resistance levels around $68.80 for Brent and $67.00 for WTI, with support levels possibly forming around recent lows. The backwardation in the forward curves could present short-term trading opportunities, but caution is advised given the bearish outlook.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The recent decline in crude prices, with the OPEC production averaging 40.92 mb/d, indicates a need for producers to reassess production planning. The inventory levels show an increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, which could pressure prices further.

Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, especially as the bearish sentiment persists. The forecasted growth in non-DoC liquids supply, particularly from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, could further impact market dynamics.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices experiencing a decrease, consumers should evaluate procurement strategies carefully. The recent supply reliability risks related to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories could impact future costs.

The decline in US crude imports and the increase in product exports suggest a potential shift in market dynamics that could affect input costs. Consumers should remain vigilant about price fluctuations, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $62.96/b and $66.46/b respectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market presents a bearish outlook driven by several factors, including declining prices, rising inventories, and a negative news sentiment score of -0.700.

Fundamental analysis indicates a modest growth in global oil demand, projected at 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, but this is tempered by increasing supply from non-DoC countries. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical factor influencing market stability.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML forecasts and monitor shifts in trader positioning, particularly the managed money net positions, which indicate a weakening bullish sentiment.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-06 23:48

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