Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-07 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.8 $0.31
WTI: $67.0 $0.45
Spread: $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 174,633
Weekly Change: 13,146

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.62
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.09

MA(20): $68.19

Current Price is 67.62, 9 day MA 66.09, 20 day MA 68.19

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.4982

Signal: 0.8678

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 53.56

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 53.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,123

Avg (20d): 293,403

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 25.14

%D: 21.11

Stochastic %K: 25.14, %D: 21.11. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.97

+DI: 23.03

-DI: 17.68

ADX: 19.97 (+DI: 23.03, -DI: 17.68). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -74.86

Williams %R: -74.86 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.34

Middle: 68.19

Lower: 61.04

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.34, Middle: 68.19, Lower: 61.04

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13433.0 13435.0 13200.0 12566.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6919.0 5944.0 6611.0 6808.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2305.0 4270.0 3910.0 3638.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17105.0 16987.0 16532.0 16420.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4614.0 1674.0 2701.0 3170.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418951.0 415106.0 460696.0 441507.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1642845.0 1633245.0 1668222.0 1647259.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232126.0 227938.0 233886.0 223413.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 103622.0 105332.0 121263.0 114743.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.8, change $-0.31. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.0, change $-0.45. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.8 (Brent premium of $1.80). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.8
0.31
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.0
0.45
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.8
Brent premium of $1.80

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth despite recent economic fluctuations.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts with minor revisions.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to manage supply and ensure that demand growth is met without causing significant price volatility.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains optimistic in the short-term, reflecting traders’ confidence in demand recovery."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-01

Managed Money

174,633
Change: +13,146
8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,199
Change: +81
13.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

-522,094
Change: +6,566
-26.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,989,440
Change: 27,442

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-01

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,989,440 contracts (+27,442)

Managed Money Net Position: 174,633 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +13,146 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,199 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -522,094 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 46
Last Updated: 2025-07-07 23:47:44

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (11 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.31
Daily: 0.13 (0.13%)
Weekly: 0.43 (0.44%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: 0.05 (1.08%)
Weekly: 0.16 (3.9%)

SP500

6229.98
Daily: -49.37 (-0.79%)
Weekly: 25.03 (0.4%)

VIX

17.79
Daily: 1.41 (8.61%)
Weekly: 1.06 (6.34%)

GOLD

3341.1
Daily: 8.6 (0.26%)
Weekly: 4.4 (0.13%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: 0.01 (0.12%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.47%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.62
Closest Support: $66.85 1.14% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 2.9% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.93
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-07 23:47:47
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.06%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-08 $67.89 $63.86 $71.92
2025-07-09 $67.8 $63.77 $71.82
2025-07-10 $67.82 $63.79 $71.85
2025-07-11 $67.82 $63.79 $71.85
2025-07-12 $67.76 $63.73 $71.78

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2025-07-08), reaching $67.89.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-08 and 2025-07-12.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected in a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution in trading strategies. The decline in the OPEC Reference Basket value by $5.02 indicates potential volatility ahead.

The Brent-WTI spread at $1.80 is indicative of ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, which may present short-term opportunities for arbitrage. Traders should monitor the narrowing of the spread as it reflects changing market sentiments.

Key support levels to watch include the recent lows in both WTI and Brent prices, while resistance may be found near the previous month's highs. Fibonacci retracement levels could provide additional insights into potential price reversals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With OECD commercial oil inventories rising to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting production planning to avoid oversupply in the market. The balance of supply and demand suggests a slight uptick in demand for DoC crude, reaching 42.6 mb/d in 2025, which may justify maintaining production levels.

Hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the bearish sentiment, particularly given the downward revisions in economic growth forecasts for key markets like the US and Eurozone. Producers may want to lock in prices before further declines.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices under pressure. The current market conditions suggest that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to mitigate supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.

With US product exports rising by 4% y-o-y, refineries may find opportunities to source cheaper imports. However, the decline in product imports by 19% y-o-y could affect availability, necessitating strategic planning for procurement.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish and bullish factors. The bearish sentiment is driven by declining prices and rising inventories, while bullish indicators include steady demand growth in non-OECD countries.

The balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with potential shifts in market dynamics expected as geopolitical tensions evolve and economic forecasts adjust. Analysts should continue monitoring positioning data, particularly from Managed Money, which indicates a strengthening sentiment among speculators.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-07 23:48

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