Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-11 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $68.64 $1.55
WTI: $66.57 $1.81
Spread: $2.07 (Brent premium of $2.07)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $68.75
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.37

MA(20): $68.48

Current Price is 68.75, 9 day MA 67.37, 20 day MA 68.48

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.5947

Signal: 0.7

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.78

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.78 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 195,733

Avg (20d): 290,866

Ratio: 0.67

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 96.15

%D: 48.14

Stochastic %K: 96.15, %D: 48.14. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.34

+DI: 20.51

-DI: 17.1

ADX: 18.34 (+DI: 20.51, -DI: 17.1). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -3.85

Williams %R: -3.85 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 75.38

Middle: 68.48

Lower: 61.58

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 75.38, Middle: 68.48, Lower: 61.58

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.64, change $-1.55. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.57, change $-1.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.07 (Brent premium of $2.07). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.64
1.55
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.57
1.81
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.07
Brent premium of $2.07

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady global economic growth and a balanced supply-demand outlook despite recent price declines.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Changing dynamics in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for continued cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively. The organization remains vigilant in monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to ensure a balanced market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market role."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 95
Last Updated: 2025-07-11 23:47:41

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (11 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.87
Daily: 0.22 (0.22%)
Weekly: 0.39 (0.4%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.08 (1.77%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.64%)

SP500

6259.75
Daily: -20.71 (-0.33%)
Weekly: 29.77 (0.48%)

VIX

16.4
Daily: 0.62 (3.93%)
Weekly: -1.39 (-7.81%)

GOLD

3370.3
Daily: 52.9 (1.59%)
Weekly: 38.1 (1.14%)

COPPER

5.58
Daily: 0.04 (0.65%)
Weekly: 0.6 (12.03%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $68.75
Closest Support: $66.85 2.76% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 1.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.57
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-11 23:47:43
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-11 $66.56 $62.49 $70.62
2025-07-12 $66.49 $62.43 $70.56
2025-07-13 $66.49 $62.42 $70.55
2025-07-14 $66.51 $62.45 $70.58
2025-07-15 $66.6 $62.54 $70.67

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-07-11), reaching $66.56.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-11 and 2025-07-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, suggests that traders should be cautious. The $68.64 Brent and $66.57 WTI prices indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $2.07, which may reflect ongoing adjustments in global supply and demand dynamics.

The resistance levels could be observed around $70 for Brent and $68 for WTI, while support may be found near $65 for WTI. The market is currently in a phase of short-term opportunities as traders react to geopolitical tensions and inventory data.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in global oil prices could impact production planning and profitability. With $62.96 WTI and $68.98 ORB, producers should consider revising their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with volatile prices.

The inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial oil inventories, suggesting a potential supply surplus that may further weigh on prices. Producers need to stay alert to market sentiment, particularly the negative sentiment surrounding demand forecasts, which could affect operational decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with current WTI prices around $62.96 and Brent at $68.98. The supply reliability risks tied to geopolitical tensions, alongside the declining inventory levels, may lead to increased procurement costs.

It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to manage costs effectively, especially in light of the bearish sentiment in the market. The ongoing dynamics in crude imports and exports indicate a need for careful monitoring of supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish and bullish factors. The fundamentals show a steady growth in global oil demand, yet the negative sentiment suggests caution. The revisions in supply forecasts indicate a potential oversupply, particularly from non-OPEC countries.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical risks and the evolving CFTC positioning, which indicates a weakening bullish stance among managed money traders. A close watch on macroeconomic indicators will be essential for anticipating shifts in market outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-11 23:48

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