Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-12 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $70.36 $1.72
WTI: $68.45 $1.88
Spread: $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $68.45
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.34

MA(20): $68.47

Current Price is 68.45, 9 day MA 67.34, 20 day MA 68.47

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.5708

Signal: 0.6952

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.0

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 258,654

Avg (20d): 294,012

Ratio: 0.88

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 90.08

%D: 46.11

Stochastic %K: 90.08, %D: 46.11. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.34

+DI: 20.51

-DI: 17.1

ADX: 18.34 (+DI: 20.51, -DI: 17.1). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -9.92

Williams %R: -9.92 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.37

Middle: 68.47

Lower: 61.57

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.37, Middle: 68.47, Lower: 61.57

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.36, change $+1.72. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.45, change $+1.88. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.36
1.72
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$68.45
1.88
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.91
Brent premium of $1.91

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over market dynamics and adjustments in demand and supply forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite tariff-related challenges.
  • Unchanged forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with ongoing assessments of supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels in response to changing market conditions to support price stability and ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 72
Last Updated: 2025-07-12 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (9 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.85
Daily: 0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly: 0.37 (0.38%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.08 (1.77%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.64%)

SP500

6259.75
Daily: -20.71 (-0.33%)
Weekly: 29.77 (0.48%)

VIX

16.4
Daily: 0.62 (3.93%)
Weekly: -1.39 (-7.81%)

GOLD

3356.0
Daily: 38.6 (1.16%)
Weekly: 23.8 (0.71%)

COPPER

5.56
Daily: 0.01 (0.25%)
Weekly: 0.58 (11.59%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $68.45
Closest Support: $66.85 2.34% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 1.65% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-12 23:47:34
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-12 $68.39 $64.32 $72.47
2025-07-13 $68.37 $64.3 $72.45
2025-07-14 $68.38 $64.31 $72.45
2025-07-15 $68.45 $64.37 $72.52
2025-07-16 $68.35 $64.28 $72.43

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-07-12), reaching $68.39.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-12 and 2025-07-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment despite recent price declines. The $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $66.46 for ICE Brent suggest potential support levels around these figures. The $1.91 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities as traders adjust positions in response to geopolitical tensions and inventory data.

The managed money net position shows a weakening bullish outlook with a drop of 28,936 contracts. This could indicate possible volatility ahead. Watch for Fibonacci retracement levels around $62.00 as a potential resistance area.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with demand for DoC crude projected to rise to 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This is a positive indicator for production planning, suggesting that producers may want to evaluate their hedging strategies accordingly to lock in prices around current levels.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb indicates a need to monitor inventory levels closely, as rising inventories could suppress prices. The market sentiment reflected by recent news articles indicates potential risks, especially concerning geopolitical tensions that might affect supply chains.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices hovering around $68.98, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread suggests that procurement strategies may need to adapt based on regional supply dynamics.

Geopolitical risks highlighted in recent news could lead to supply reliability risks, making it crucial for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate price volatility. Monitoring inventory levels will also be essential to ensure consistent supply.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment despite recent price declines. Key driving factors include stable global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, alongside a slight reduction in non-DoC supply growth forecasts.

The CFTC positioning data indicates that managed money traders are in a weakening bullish position, which could signal a shift in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical events and economic forecasts, as these will likely influence future price trajectories.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-12 23:47

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