Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-16 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.71 $0.5
WTI: $66.52 $0.46
Spread: $2.19 (Brent premium of $2.19)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.87
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.39

MA(20): $67.51

Current Price is 66.87, 9 day MA 67.39, 20 day MA 67.51

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.3233

Signal: 0.5445

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.1

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,024

Avg (20d): 256,664

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 46.02

%D: 44.47

Stochastic %K: 46.02, %D: 44.47. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.97

+DI: 20.46

-DI: 16.77

ADX: 16.97 (+DI: 20.46, -DI: 16.77). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -53.98

Williams %R: -53.98 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 73.1

Middle: 67.51

Lower: 61.92

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 73.1, Middle: 67.51, Lower: 61.92

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.71, change $-0.5. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.52, change $-0.46. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.19 (Brent premium of $2.19). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.71
0.5
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.52
0.46
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.19
Brent premium of $2.19

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC maintains a cautious yet optimistic outlook on the oil market, reflecting steady demand growth amidst recent economic fluctuations.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks in April.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
  • Stable oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC emphasizes the importance of maintaining market stability through coordinated production adjustments, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating global economic conditions and inventory levels. The organization remains committed to monitoring market dynamics closely and adapting strategies as necessary to support oil prices and demand.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook reflects traders’ optimism about the short-term, despite the recent price declines."
"Demand for DoC crude is projected to increase, highlighting the ongoing recovery in global oil consumption."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 74
Last Updated: 2025-07-16 23:47:42

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (11 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.54
Daily: -0.08 (-0.08%)
Weekly: 0.89 (0.91%)

US_10Y

4.45
Daily: -0.03 (-0.76%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.51%)

SP500

6263.7
Daily: 19.94 (0.32%)
Weekly: -16.76 (-0.27%)

VIX

17.16
Daily: -0.22 (-1.27%)
Weekly: 1.38 (8.75%)

GOLD

3346.7
Daily: 16.9 (0.51%)
Weekly: 29.3 (0.88%)

COPPER

5.52
Daily: -0.03 (-0.5%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.53%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.87
Closest Support: $66.85 0.03% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 4.05% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.38
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-16 23:47:45
Next Trading Day: UP 0.11%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-17 $66.46 $62.35 $70.56
2025-07-18 $66.39 $62.29 $70.5
2025-07-19 $66.47 $62.36 $70.57
2025-07-20 $66.49 $62.39 $70.6
2025-07-21 $66.5 $62.39 $70.6

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-07-17), reaching $66.46.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-17 and 2025-07-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, suggests potential downward price pressure. The $68.71 for Brent and $66.52 for WTI indicates a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $2.19, which may limit arbitrage opportunities.

With the support levels around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent), traders should monitor these levels closely for potential rebounds. The risk of further declines is present, especially with managed money net positions decreasing by -28,936 contracts, indicating weakening bullish sentiment.

Traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities as the market adjusts to geopolitical developments and inventory reports, which could influence volatility in the coming weeks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, may necessitate adjustments in production planning. The strategy should involve careful monitoring of the supply-demand balance, particularly as global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025.

Given the bearish market sentiment and the decline in crude production by OPEC countries, producers may consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. Additionally, the risk of geopolitical tensions impacting supply should be factored into operational decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input costs for consumers are likely to fluctuate as WTI and Brent prices hover around $66.52 and $68.71 respectively. The risk of supply reliability is heightened due to geopolitical factors and declining U.S. crude imports, which averaged 5.8 mb/d in April, down 0.1 mb/d month-on-month.

Consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases and supply disruptions. The recent recovery in U.S. refinery margins also suggests a need for close monitoring of market conditions to optimize purchasing decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, as indicated by the overall market sentiment score of -0.400. The fundamentals show a slight increase in global oil demand, projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, juxtaposed against a declining supply forecast, particularly from OPEC countries.

Technical indicators suggest that the market may experience increased volatility due to the narrowing Brent-WTI spread and the recent decline in managed money net positions. Analysts should focus on these dynamics, along with geopolitical developments and inventory levels, to assess potential shifts in market outlook.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-16 23:48

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