Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-18 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.52 $1.0
WTI: $67.54 $1.16
Spread: $1.98 (Brent premium of $1.98)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.3
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.38

MA(20): $66.72

Current Price is 67.3, 9 day MA 67.38, 20 day MA 66.72

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.283

Signal: 0.4475

Days since crossover: 18

MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.5

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 79,909

Avg (20d): 248,296

Ratio: 0.32

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 52.81

%D: 49.45

Stochastic %K: 52.81, %D: 49.45. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.0

+DI: 23.84

-DI: 16.82

ADX: 16.0 (+DI: 23.84, -DI: 16.82). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -47.19

Williams %R: -47.19 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 69.23

Middle: 66.72

Lower: 64.21

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 69.23, Middle: 66.72, Lower: 64.21

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.52, change $+1.0. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.54, change $+1.16. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.98 (Brent premium of $1.98). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.52
1.0
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.54
1.16
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.98
Brent premium of $1.98

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging the challenges posed by economic growth forecasts while remaining optimistic about demand recovery in the near term.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and its implications for market stability.
  • Steady global economic growth despite some downward revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts and their impact on the market.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and their effects on product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is closely monitoring the evolving dynamics of global oil demand and supply. The organization is prepared to adjust its production strategies in response to market conditions to ensure a balanced and sustainable oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 85
Last Updated: 2025-07-18 23:47:38

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Geopolitical (6 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.46
Daily: -0.27 (-0.27%)
Weekly: 0.38 (0.39%)

US_10Y

4.43
Daily: -0.03 (-0.69%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.11%)

SP500

6296.79
Daily: -0.57 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 28.23 (0.45%)

VIX

16.41
Daily: -0.11 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -0.79 (-4.59%)

GOLD

3355.5
Daily: 15.4 (0.46%)
Weekly: 4.0 (0.12%)

COPPER

5.58
Daily: 0.1 (1.74%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.21%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.3
Closest Support: $66.85 0.67% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 3.39% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.54
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-18 23:47:41
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.11%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-18 $67.46 $63.36 $71.57
2025-07-19 $67.54 $63.44 $71.64
2025-07-20 $67.55 $63.45 $71.66
2025-07-21 $67.55 $63.44 $71.65
2025-07-22 $67.49 $63.39 $71.59

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-07-18), reaching $67.46.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-18 and 2025-07-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, suggests caution in trading strategies. The decline in the OPEC Reference Basket by $5.02 indicates potential support levels around the $68.00 mark.

The Brent-WTI spread at $1.98 highlights ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities. The narrowing spread could indicate a convergence of prices, but traders should monitor for potential volatility as the market adjusts to economic forecasts and geopolitical developments.

With managed money positions showing a weakening bullish trend, traders should be prepared for potential market reversals. The short-term risks include fluctuating inventory levels and geopolitical tensions affecting supply reliability.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC basket down to $68.98, necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. Producers should consider the implications of increasing inventory levels, as OECD commercial stocks rose to 2,740 mb, indicating potential oversupply risks.

The bearish market sentiment may impact operational decisions, encouraging producers to optimize production costs and enhance efficiency. Additionally, with forecasts for non-DoC liquids supply growth revised down, producers in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina might need to adjust their output strategies accordingly.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI prices recently settling at $67.54. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels necessitate a proactive approach to procurement and hedging.

The decline in US crude imports and the increase in product exports may indicate a tightening supply for certain refined products, which could lead to higher costs in the near term. Refineries experiencing downward trends in margins should assess their procurement strategies to mitigate potential impacts on profitability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and rising commercial inventories. The global oil demand forecast remains stable, with a projected growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, but the balance of supply and demand is increasingly precarious due to inventory levels and geopolitical factors.

Key drivers include the weakening positioning of managed money, which suggests a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts should monitor the implications of the Brent-WTI spread and the impact of economic growth forecasts on crude prices to identify opportunities for strategic adjustments in forecasts and recommendations.

Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-18 23:48

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