Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-19 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.28 $0.24
WTI: $67.34 $0.2
Spread: $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.34
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.39

MA(20): $66.72

Current Price is 67.34, 9 day MA 67.39, 20 day MA 66.72

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.2862

Signal: 0.4481

Days since crossover: 18

MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.64

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.64 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 188,802

Avg (20d): 253,741

Ratio: 0.74

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 53.61

%D: 49.72

Stochastic %K: 53.61, %D: 49.72. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.0

+DI: 23.84

-DI: 16.82

ADX: 16.0 (+DI: 23.84, -DI: 16.82). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -46.39

Williams %R: -46.39 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 69.24

Middle: 66.72

Lower: 64.21

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 69.24, Middle: 66.72, Lower: 64.21

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.28, change $-0.24. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.34, change $-0.2. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.28
0.24
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.34
0.2
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.94
Brent premium of $1.94

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst recent price declines.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions to forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, albeit slightly revised down.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements Not Mentioned N/A

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization anticipates a gradual recovery in oil prices as demand continues to grow, particularly in non-OECD regions, while also addressing the challenges posed by fluctuating global economic conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook shows signs of optimism, with demand growth expected to remain steady despite recent price fluctuations."
"We are closely observing the balance of supply and demand to ensure stability in the oil market."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 65
Last Updated: 2025-07-19 23:47:28

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.48
Daily: -0.25 (-0.25%)
Weekly: 0.4 (0.41%)

US_10Y

4.43
Daily: -0.03 (-0.69%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.11%)

SP500

6296.79
Daily: -0.57 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 28.23 (0.45%)

VIX

16.41
Daily: -0.11 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -0.79 (-4.59%)

GOLD

3353.0
Daily: 12.9 (0.39%)
Weekly: 1.5 (0.04%)

COPPER

5.58
Daily: 0.09 (1.68%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.14%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.34
Closest Support: $66.85 0.73% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 3.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.34
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-19 23:47:30
Next Trading Day: UP 0.11%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-19 $67.42 $63.32 $71.52
2025-07-20 $67.43 $63.33 $71.53
2025-07-21 $67.42 $63.32 $71.52
2025-07-22 $67.37 $63.27 $71.46
2025-07-23 $67.37 $63.28 $71.47

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-07-19), reaching $67.42.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-19 and 2025-07-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

With the recent bearish sentiment reflected in the overall market score of -0.400, traders should be cautious of potential price declines. The Brent-WTI spread at $1.94 indicates a slight premium for Brent, suggesting stronger global demand dynamics compared to U.S. supply. The narrowing of this spread could signal risks for WTI prices in the near term.

Given the support levels observed, traders may want to monitor key Fibonacci retracement levels around $62.96 for WTI as potential entry points. The short-term opportunities may arise from volatility in response to geopolitical developments and inventory reports.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the supply-demand balance as global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, the revised down forecasts for non-DoC supply growth may provide a bullish outlook for prices in the medium term. The current OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb are significantly below the 2015-2019 average, indicating potential tightening in the market.

Hedging strategies should be revisited as market sentiment remains bearish, with managed money positions indicating weakness. Producers might benefit from adjusting production plans based on inventory levels and market signals.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile, with WTI recently settling at $67.34. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories could impact procurement strategies. The decline in U.S. crude imports by 0.1 mb/d and the increase in product exports suggest a tightening supply environment.

Refineries may need to adjust operational strategies to mitigate rising costs and ensure supply continuity, especially given the bearish sentiment surrounding demand outlooks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with mixed signals. While the bearish sentiment prevails, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.400, underlying fundamentals show a bullish potential due to constrained supply growth and increasing demand forecasts. The balance between supply and demand indicates a tightening market, particularly with OECD commercial inventories below historical averages.

Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory reports, as these factors could significantly shift the market outlook. The positioning data from the CFTC highlights a potential for reversal, necessitating a cautious approach in forecasts.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific guidance tailored to your situation.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-19 23:47

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