Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-20 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.28 $0.24
WTI: $67.34 $0.2
Spread: $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.52
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.3

MA(20): $66.67

Current Price is 67.52, 9 day MA 67.3, 20 day MA 66.67

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.2895

Signal: 0.4164

Days since crossover: 19

MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.27

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.27 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,693

Avg (20d): 217,432

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 51.81

%D: 54.82

Stochastic %K: 51.81, %D: 54.82. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.09

+DI: 23.55

-DI: 16.62

ADX: 16.09 (+DI: 23.55, -DI: 16.62). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -48.19

Williams %R: -48.19 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 69.08

Middle: 66.67

Lower: 64.27

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 69.08, Middle: 66.67, Lower: 64.27

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.28, change $-0.24. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.34, change $-0.2. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.28
0.24
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.34
0.2
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.94
Brent premium of $1.94

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuating prices and economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and market adjustments.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts with minor revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization anticipates that ongoing adjustments in production levels and adherence to cooperation agreements will be essential in navigating the current market challenges.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook shows signs of optimism, yet we must remain vigilant to ensure stability." - OPEC Official

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-07-20 23:47:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.46
Daily: -0.02 (-0.02%)
Weekly: -0.16 (-0.16%)

US_10Y

4.43
Daily: -0.03 (-0.69%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.11%)

SP500

6296.79
Daily: -0.57 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 28.23 (0.45%)

VIX

16.41
Daily: -0.11 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -0.79 (-4.59%)

GOLD

3361.1
Daily: 8.1 (0.24%)
Weekly: 31.3 (0.94%)

COPPER

5.61
Daily: 0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.19%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.52
Closest Support: $66.85 0.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 3.05% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.34
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-20 23:47:39
Next Trading Day: UP 0.12%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-19 $67.42 $63.32 $71.52
2025-07-20 $67.43 $63.33 $71.53
2025-07-21 $67.43 $63.33 $71.52
2025-07-22 $67.37 $63.27 $71.46
2025-07-23 $67.38 $63.28 $71.47

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-07-19), reaching $67.42.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-19 and 2025-07-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices reflects a potential shift in market sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b and ICE Brent at $66.46/b. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.94, indicating a slight narrowing, which may suggest converging supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

Traders should monitor the backwardation in the forward curves for signs of short-term bullish sentiment, although the managed money positioning indicates a weakening bullish trend with a net position of 91,769 contracts. This could lead to increased volatility in the short term.

Key Fibonacci levels to watch for support include the recent lows around $62.96/b for WTI, while resistance may be encountered around $68.00/b for Brent.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude oil prices necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. With crude production from OPEC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d in April, producers may consider adjusting output to align with the revised demand forecasts of 42.6 mb/d for 2025.

The current inventory levels indicate a mixed picture, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average. This may provide some buffer against further price declines, but producers should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical risks affecting supply.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent trends in crude oil prices, with WTI at $62.96/b and Brent at $66.46/b, suggest potential input cost fluctuations for consumers. Refiners should be prepared for procurement strategies that account for these price movements, especially given the weakening demand signals from the OECD.

Additionally, the geopolitical landscape remains a concern, particularly with supply disruptions noted in recent headlines. The revised inventory levels and global refinery intake dropping by 500 tb/d y-o-y may impact supply reliability, necessitating careful planning for hedging against price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a mixed outlook. While global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, the decline in OPEC production and recent price movements indicate potential

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-20 23:48

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