Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-22 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.21 $0.07
WTI: $67.2 $0.14
Spread: $2.01 (Brent premium of $2.01)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.36
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.04

MA(20): $66.76

Current Price is 66.36, 9 day MA 67.04, 20 day MA 66.76

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.1765

Signal: 0.3643

Days since crossover: 20

MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.97

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,046

Avg (20d): 190,827

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 22.59

%D: 40.26

Stochastic %K: 22.59, %D: 40.26. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.94

+DI: 21.91

-DI: 19.33

ADX: 14.94 (+DI: 21.91, -DI: 19.33). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -77.41

Williams %R: -77.41 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.91

Middle: 66.76

Lower: 64.61

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.91, Middle: 66.76, Lower: 64.61

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.21, change $-0.07. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.2, change $-0.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.01 (Brent premium of $2.01). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.21
0.07
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.2
0.14
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.01
Brent premium of $2.01

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over fluctuating oil prices and the need for market stability amid varying global economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable world oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised down.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market balance.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC emphasizes the importance of maintaining market stability amidst fluctuating prices and varying global economic conditions. The organization remains committed to monitoring supply and demand dynamics closely to ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for OPEC's role in the global oil market."
"Despite recent price declines, traders show optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 54
Last Updated: 2025-07-22 23:47:44

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.41
Daily: -0.44 (-0.45%)
Weekly: -0.98 (-0.99%)

US_10Y

4.34
Daily: -0.04 (-0.82%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.67%)

SP500

6309.62
Daily: 4.02 (0.06%)
Weekly: 45.92 (0.73%)

VIX

16.5
Daily: -0.15 (-0.9%)
Weekly: -0.66 (-3.85%)

GOLD

3440.3
Daily: 38.4 (1.13%)
Weekly: 87.8 (2.62%)

COPPER

5.77
Daily: 0.16 (2.91%)
Weekly: 0.28 (5.04%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.36
Closest Support: $64.12 3.38% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 0.74% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.2
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-22 23:47:46
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-22 $67.22 $63.12 $71.31
2025-07-23 $67.21 $63.11 $71.31
2025-07-24 $67.15 $63.05 $71.25
2025-07-25 $67.16 $63.07 $71.26
2025-07-26 $67.17 $63.07 $71.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-07-22), reaching $67.22.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-22 and 2025-07-26.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.400, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The $69.21 for Brent and $67.20 for WTI suggest that traders should be cautious of further declines. The $2.01 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics that may create short-term trading opportunities, especially if the spread narrows further. Traders should monitor support levels around the recent lows, as a breach could signal increased volatility. The managed money positioning shows a weakening bullish stance, which could lead to increased volatility in the coming weeks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With bearish market sentiment and declining prices, producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating revenues. The increase in OECD commercial crude inventories to 1,323 mb indicates a potential oversupply, which could further pressure prices. Additionally, the balance of supply and demand for DoC crude suggests a slight increase in demand, but the overall outlook remains cautious. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in response to these inventory levels and market sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The recent declines in US product imports and stable exports may impact supply reliability. The bearish sentiment in the market suggests that procurement strategies should be flexible to adapt to potential price drops. Consumers must also monitor geopolitical factors that could disrupt supply chains, especially with rising concerns about global oil supply glut.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment and a weakening outlook due to rising inventories and geopolitical uncertainties. The fundamental balance shows a slight increase in demand for DoC crude, but the overall supply growth from non-DoC countries may offset this. Analysts should focus on the implications of the narrowing Brent-WTI spread and the risks associated with oversupply and economic growth concerns affecting demand forecasts. The positioning data indicates that managed money traders are cautious, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics in the near future.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-22 23:48

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