Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-24 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.51 $0.08
WTI: $65.25 $0.06
Spread: $3.26 (Brent premium of $3.26)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.19
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.62

MA(20): $66.81

Current Price is 66.19, 9 day MA 66.62, 20 day MA 66.81

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.0394

Signal: 0.2251

Days since crossover: 22

MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.97

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,632

Avg (20d): 191,184

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 29.96

%D: 19.98

Stochastic %K: 29.96, %D: 19.98. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.28

+DI: 22.38

-DI: 21.72

ADX: 13.28 (+DI: 22.38, -DI: 21.72). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -70.04

Williams %R: -70.04 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.82

Middle: 66.81

Lower: 64.81

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.82, Middle: 66.81, Lower: 64.81

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.51, change $-0.08. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.25, change $-0.06. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.26 (Brent premium of $3.26). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.51
0.08
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$65.25
0.06
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.26
Brent premium of $3.26

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth despite recent economic fluctuations.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and strengthening backwardation in forward curves.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts with slight revisions downward.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a proactive stance on ensuring market stability, with a focus on balancing supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its production strategies to support price stability and sustainable growth in the oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive shift in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 83
Last Updated: 2025-07-24 23:47:34

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (11 articles)

Demand (12 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.57
Daily: 0.36 (0.37%)
Weekly: -0.91 (-0.93%)

US_10Y

4.41
Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.54%)

SP500

6363.35
Daily: 4.44 (0.07%)
Weekly: 66.56 (1.06%)

VIX

15.39
Daily: 0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly: -1.02 (-6.22%)

GOLD

3361.8
Daily: -32.3 (-0.95%)
Weekly: 8.8 (0.26%)

COPPER

5.79
Daily: -0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly: 0.21 (3.85%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.19
Closest Support: $64.12 3.13% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 1.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.03
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-24 23:47:37
Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-25 $66.06 $62.57 $69.55
2025-07-26 $66.09 $62.6 $69.58
2025-07-27 $66.15 $62.66 $69.64
2025-07-28 $66.18 $62.7 $69.67
2025-07-29 $66.14 $62.65 $69.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-07-25), reaching $66.06.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-25 and 2025-07-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in Crude Oil prices, with $68.98/b for the OPEC Reference Basket, indicates potential bearish market sentiment. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.50/b suggests that traders should monitor the dynamics between global and U.S. supply, which may present risks for price volatility.

With the support level around $62.00/b and resistance near $68.00/b, traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations driven by geopolitical influences and changing demand forecasts. The short-term opportunities could arise from the backwardation in the futures curves, reflecting trader optimism.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics suggest a need for careful hedging strategies as bearish sentiment prevails. With $62.96/b for WTI, producers should evaluate production planning against projected supply and demand forecasts, particularly as global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025.

The increase in OECD commercial oil inventories to 2,740 mb could impact market prices, necessitating close monitoring of inventory levels to inform operational decisions. The impact of geopolitical factors and fluctuating market sentiment will also be critical for strategic planning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI prices hover around $62.96/b. The bearish sentiment in the market may influence procurement strategies, especially with the ongoing supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.

The recent trends in refinery margins, particularly in the USGC, indicate a need for strategic procurement to mitigate costs while capitalizing on seasonal demand for gasoline. Monitoring the support level around $60.00/b could be beneficial for planning and budgeting.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture, with bearish sentiment dominating due to declining prices and increasing inventories. Key driving factors include a projected growth in global oil demand and a slight decrease in non-DoC liquids supply growth forecasts, which could shift the supply-demand balance.

Analysts should focus on the implications of CFTC positioning, where managed money traders exhibit a weakening bullish stance. This shift, combined with geopolitical developments and economic forecasts, may indicate potential outlook shifts in the coming months, necessitating close observation of market trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-24 23:48

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