Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-25 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.18 $0.67
WTI: $66.03 $0.78
Spread: $3.15 (Brent premium of $3.15)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.07
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.39

MA(20): $66.78

Current Price is 65.07, 9 day MA 66.39, 20 day MA 66.78

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.1754

Signal: 0.1429

Days since crossover: 23

MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.01

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 214,969

Avg (20d): 203,697

Ratio: 1.06

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 7.29

%D: 14.98

Stochastic %K: 7.29, %D: 14.98. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.54

+DI: 21.98

-DI: 20.44

ADX: 12.54 (+DI: 21.98, -DI: 20.44). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -92.71

Williams %R: -92.71 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.87

Middle: 66.78

Lower: 64.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.87, Middle: 66.78, Lower: 64.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.18, change $+0.67. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $66.03, change $+0.78. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.15 (Brent premium of $3.15). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.18
0.67
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.03
0.78
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.15
Brent premium of $3.15

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and the impact of global economic growth on oil demand.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Revised global economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels Not Mentioned N/A

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics amid fluctuating economic conditions and price movements. The organization is likely to continue adjusting its production strategies to align with market needs and ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economic landscape remains challenging, and we must remain vigilant in our approach to production and supply management."
"Demand for DoC crude is showing positive revisions, indicating resilience in the market despite external pressures."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 57
Last Updated: 2025-07-25 23:47:56

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.67
Daily: 0.29 (0.3%)
Weekly: -0.18 (-0.18%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: -0.02 (-0.5%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.32%)

SP500

6388.64
Daily: 25.29 (0.4%)
Weekly: 83.04 (1.32%)

VIX

14.93
Daily: -0.46 (-2.99%)
Weekly: -1.72 (-10.33%)

GOLD

3338.5
Daily: -32.5 (-0.96%)
Weekly: -63.4 (-1.86%)

COPPER

5.8
Daily: 0.03 (0.47%)
Weekly: 0.19 (3.45%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.07
Closest Support: $64.12 1.46% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 2.74% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.03
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-25 23:47:59
Next Trading Day: UP 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-25 $66.06 $62.57 $69.55
2025-07-26 $66.09 $62.6 $69.57
2025-07-27 $66.14 $62.65 $69.63
2025-07-28 $66.18 $62.69 $69.67
2025-07-29 $66.14 $62.65 $69.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-07-25), reaching $66.06.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-25 and 2025-07-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, suggests a bearish market sentiment. The support levels may be tested around $62.96 for WTI, with resistance potentially forming near $69.18 for Brent.

The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.15 indicates a shift in supply/demand dynamics, highlighting potential risks in transportation and geopolitical factors. Traders should monitor the backwardation trend in the forward curves, which may present short-term trading opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The downward revision in global oil supply growth forecasts, particularly from non-DoC countries, suggests a need for strategic hedging against potential price volatility. With OECD commercial crude inventories at 1,323 mb, lower than the 2015–2019 average, producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with market balance and inventory levels.

The bearish sentiment reflected in news articles may influence operational decisions, emphasizing the importance of monitoring market conditions closely.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Fluctuations in crude prices, currently at $66.03 for WTI, indicate potential input cost fluctuations that consumers must account for in budgeting. The recent increase in U.S. product exports, up by 4%, may provide opportunities for procurement strategies that leverage favorable pricing.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the decline in global refinery intake could pose supply reliability risks. Consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging to mitigate potential cost increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The crude oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by a combination of declining prices and revisions in supply and demand forecasts. The balance between supply and demand remains fragile, with global demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, while supply growth is tempered.

The positioning data from the CFTC indicates managed money is slightly bullish, yet overall market sentiment is bearish. Analysts should remain vigilant for potential shifts in sentiment and the implications of geopolitical developments on market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-25 23:48

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