Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-27 19:29

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.44 $0.74
WTI: $65.16 $0.87
Spread: $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.16
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.25

MA(20): $66.79

Current Price is 65.16, 9 day MA 66.25, 20 day MA 66.79

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.2573

Signal: 0.064

Days since crossover: 24

MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.3

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.3 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,497

Avg (20d): 197,469

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 9.11

%D: 14.98

Stochastic %K: 9.11, %D: 14.98. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 11.9

+DI: 21.73

-DI: 20.21

ADX: 11.9 (+DI: 21.73, -DI: 20.21). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -90.89

Williams %R: -90.89 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.85

Middle: 66.79

Lower: 64.73

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.85, Middle: 66.79, Lower: 64.73

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.44, change $-0.74. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.16, change $-0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.44
0.74
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$65.16
0.87
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.28
Brent premium of $3.28

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging both steady demand growth and recent declines in crude prices.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecast adjustments for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing demand dynamics and ensure a balanced market. The organization continues to monitor economic indicators closely to inform its policy decisions moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting an increase in market confidence."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 26
Last Updated: 2025-07-27 19:29:20

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.62
Daily: -0.03 (-0.03%)
Weekly: 0.23 (0.23%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: -0.02 (-0.5%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.32%)

SP500

6388.64
Daily: 25.29 (0.4%)
Weekly: 83.04 (1.32%)

VIX

14.93
Daily: -0.46 (-2.99%)
Weekly: -1.72 (-10.33%)

GOLD

3335.6
Daily: 1.6 (0.05%)
Weekly: -103.6 (-3.01%)

COPPER

5.78
Daily: 0.02 (0.37%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.54%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.16
Closest Support: $64.12 1.6% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 2.59% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.16
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-27 19:29:22
Next Trading Day: UP 0.06%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-26 $65.2 $61.72 $68.67
2025-07-27 $65.26 $61.78 $68.74
2025-07-28 $65.31 $61.83 $68.79
2025-07-29 $65.28 $61.8 $68.76
2025-07-30 $65.33 $61.85 $68.81

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2025-07-26), reaching $65.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-26 and 2025-07-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The overall market sentiment is currently bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.400. The $68.44 for Brent and $65.16 for WTI indicate a downward trend, with both contracts showing declines of approximately 7% month-over-month. Traders should pay attention to the support levels around these price points, as they could indicate potential reversal zones. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.28 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics that could influence trading strategies. The narrowing spread suggests that the market is adjusting to geopolitical factors and transportation costs. Short-term opportunities may arise from volatility in response to inventory reports and geopolitical news, especially with managed money positioning showing a bullish trend.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels, as OECD commercial oil inventories have increased to 2,740 mb, indicating a potential oversupply. The decline in crude production from OPEC countries suggests a need for strategic production planning. With a bearish sentiment prevailing, it may be prudent to adopt hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. Additionally, the $68.98/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the current market conditions should inform operational decisions to maintain profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be aware of potential fluctuations in input costs, especially with WTI at $65.16 and Brent at $68.44. The current supply reliability risks could stem from geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels. With US crude imports declining and exports remaining stable, procurement strategies may need to adapt to ensure supply continuity. The bearish sentiment in the market may provide opportunities for cost-effective procurement, but vigilance is required to navigate potential disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several driving factors. The bearish sentiment, reflected in the overall market sentiment score of -0.400, indicates a cautious outlook. Key fundamentals show a balance of supply and demand, with an upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread suggests a shift in market dynamics that analysts should monitor closely. Overall, the combination of technical indicators, positioning from managed money, and macroeconomic factors indicates a potential shift in outlook that may require reevaluation of forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any assets.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-27 19:26:55 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil saw volatility this week, initially rising on geopolitical tensions but then dropping sharply after a ceasefire was announced and OPEC+ increased production quotas. Key levels to watch are $66.84 (pivot) with support at $63.80 and resistance at $68.48. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are mixed; bearish sentiment persists despite rising temperatures and LNG exports, with key levels at $3.449 (pivot) and $3.24 (support). Traders should monitor demand fluctuations and...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-27 19:29

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