Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 0/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.44 $0.74

WTI: $65.16 $0.87

Spread: $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237

Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)

Current Price: $65.31

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.27

MA(20): $66.8

Current Price is 65.31, 9 day MA 66.27, 20 day MA 66.8

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.2453

Signal: 0.0664

Days since crossover: 24

MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.96

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,867

Avg (20d): 197,888

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 12.15

%D: 15.99

Stochastic %K: 12.15, %D: 15.99. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 11.9

+DI: 21.55

-DI: 20.04

ADX: 11.9 (+DI: 21.55, -DI: 20.04). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -87.85

Williams %R: -87.85 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.84

Middle: 66.8

Lower: 64.76

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.84, Middle: 66.8, Lower: 64.76

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13273.0	13375.0	13300.0	12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5976.0	6379.0	7037.0	6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3855.0	3518.0	3964.0	4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16936.0	16849.0	16928.0	16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2121.0	2861.0	3073.0	2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	418993.0	422162.0	440226.0	438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1653187.0	1658540.0	1669754.0	1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	231129.0	232867.0	232994.0	223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	109901.0	106970.0	128066.0	118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.44, change $-0.74. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.16, change $-0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.44

0.74

(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$65.16

0.87

(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.28

Brent premium of $3.28

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuating supply dynamics.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
World oil demand expected to grow steadily in 2025 and 2026.
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised down slightly.
Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market balance.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	As of March
Crude Oil Production (DoC countries)	40.92 mb/d	Decreased by 106 tb/d in April

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to achieve a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for market stability."

"Despite the fluctuations in prices, the overall sentiment remains optimistic about future demand growth."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237

Change: +6,468

4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090

Change: -17,329

14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946

Change: +23,869

-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304

Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL

Average Polarity: 0.1

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 27

Last Updated: 2025-07-27 23:47:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.1

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.6

Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)

Weekly: 0.21 (0.22%)

US_10Y

4.39

Daily: -0.02 (-0.5%)

Weekly: 0.01 (0.32%)

SP500

6388.64

Daily: 25.29 (0.4%)

Weekly: 83.04 (1.32%)

VIX

14.93

Daily: -0.46 (-2.99%)

Weekly: -1.72 (-10.33%)

GOLD

3338.8

Daily: 4.8 (0.14%)

Weekly: -100.4 (-2.92%)

COPPER

5.78

Daily: 0.02 (0.32%)

Weekly: 0.09 (1.49%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.31

Closest Support: $64.12 1.82% below current price

Closest Resistance: $66.85 2.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3

0.236 $60.75

0.382 $64.12 Support

0.5 $66.85 Resistance

0.618 $69.58

0.786 $73.46

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68

1.618 $92.68

2.0 $101.5

2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.16

Forecast Generated: 2025-07-27 23:47:56

Next Trading Day: UP 0.06%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-07-26	$65.2	$61.72	$68.67
2025-07-27	$65.26	$61.78	$68.74
2025-07-28	$65.31	$61.83	$68.79
2025-07-29	$65.28	$61.8	$68.76
2025-07-30	$65.33	$61.85	$68.81

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2025-07-26), reaching $65.20.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-26 and 2025-07-30.
The average confidence interval width is ~10.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude prices indicates potential support levels around the $62.96 (NYMEX WTI) and $66.46 (ICE Brent). The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread suggests a slight convergence in market dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities as volatility may increase around these levels. Traders should monitor the geopolitical developments and market sentiment, which remains positive with a sentiment score of +0.400. The Fibonacci retracement levels could act as key indicators for potential price reversals, particularly if prices approach $65.16 for WTI and $68.44 for Brent.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics suggest a need for careful production planning. With OECD crude inventories rising to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting output levels to avoid oversupply risks. The decline in refining margins in Europe and Asia indicates a challenging environment for profitability, which may affect hedging strategies. Additionally, the upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025 could provide a positive outlook for production, especially for those participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations are likely to be influenced by the current geopolitical tensions and inventory levels. With WTI currently at $65.16 and Brent at $68.44, consumers should prepare for potential price volatility in the near term. The decline in US product imports may affect supply reliability, particularly in the face of rising demand in markets like India and China. Consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and ensure consistent supply.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish signals. The strong sentiment score of +0.400 reflects optimism, yet the declining prices and rising inventories indicate potential headwinds. Key drivers include global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, primarily from non-OECD countries, and the uncertainties in geopolitical dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these factors, as shifts in market sentiment and positioning could lead to significant outlook changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-27 23:45:34 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil prices experienced volatility due to geopolitical tensions but fell sharply after a ceasefire was reached, suggesting a bearish outlook ahead. With OPEC+ increasing quotas, traders eye $66.84 as a crucial pivot level, with potential drops to $50 looming. Meanwhile, natural gas is caught in a tug-of-war between rising demand from heat and LNG exports versus a bearish outlook on storage levels. Key levels to watch include $3.449 for potential support, with further ...