Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-30 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bullish
Score: 2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $72.51 $2.47
WTI: $69.21 $2.5
Spread: $3.3 (Brent premium of $3.30)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $70.01
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.01

MA(20): $67.18

Current Price is 70.01, 9 day MA 67.01, 20 day MA 67.18

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3358

Signal: 0.1391

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 60.58

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 60.58 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,900

Avg (20d): 202,182

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 92.98

%D: 74.19

Stochastic %K: 92.98, %D: 74.19. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.23

+DI: 29.39

-DI: 16.13

ADX: 14.23 (+DI: 29.39, -DI: 16.13). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.02

Williams %R: -7.02 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 69.61

Middle: 67.18

Lower: 64.76

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 69.61, Middle: 67.18, Lower: 64.76

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $72.51, change $+2.47. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.21, change $+2.5. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.3 (Brent premium of $3.30). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$72.51
2.47
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$69.21
2.5
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.3
Brent premium of $3.30

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, reflecting steady growth in global demand despite recent economic challenges.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and market recovery signals.
  • Stable global economic growth forecasts with minor revisions.
  • Unchanged growth projections for world oil demand in 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage supply effectively and respond to global demand fluctuations. The organization is closely monitoring economic indicators and market dynamics to inform future production strategies.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, standing at 42.6 mb/d in 2025."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 63
Last Updated: 2025-07-30 23:48:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (10 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.83
Daily: 0.92 (0.93%)
Weekly: 2.45 (2.51%)

US_10Y

4.38
Daily: 0.05 (1.06%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.73%)

SP500

6362.9
Daily: -7.96 (-0.12%)
Weekly: -0.45 (-0.01%)

VIX

15.48
Daily: -0.5 (-3.13%)
Weekly: 0.09 (0.58%)

GOLD

3345.3
Daily: 21.9 (0.66%)
Weekly: -25.7 (-0.76%)

COPPER

4.43
Daily: -1.17 (-20.9%)
Weekly: -1.34 (-23.27%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $70.01
Closest Support: $67.72 3.27% below current price
Closest Resistance: $70.24 0.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $57.03
0.236 $62.07
0.382 $65.19
0.5 $67.72 Support
0.618 $70.24 Resistance
0.786 $73.83
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.21
1.618 $91.61
2.0 $99.77
2.618 $112.98

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $70.0
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-30 23:48:37
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-31 $69.95 $66.47 $73.44
2025-08-01 $69.94 $66.45 $73.42
2025-08-02 $69.79 $66.3 $73.27
2025-08-03 $69.62 $66.14 $73.11
2025-08-04 $69.58 $66.09 $73.06

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-07-31), reaching $69.95.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-31 and 2025-08-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices across the board, including a $5.02 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, suggests potential volatility in the short term. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.30 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, indicating that traders should monitor this spread closely for short-term trading opportunities.

With the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves strengthening into backwardation, there might be short-term bullish momentum despite the recent price drops. Traders should be cautious of potential market reversals if Managed Money positions become extreme.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The global oil demand forecast remains stable, with an expected increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, which could support production planning. However, the decline in inventory levels and recent 106 tb/d drop in DoC crude production should prompt producers to reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.

The market sentiment remains optimistic despite recent price declines, emphasizing the importance of maintaining operational efficiency and cost control in this environment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The potential for input cost fluctuations is heightened with crude prices showing volatility. The recent 2% increase in crude exports indicates a tightening supply, which could impact procurement strategies for refineries and transportation sectors.

Given the geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventory levels, consumers should consider hedging strategies to manage input costs effectively. Additionally, monitoring the Brent-WTI spread can provide insights into supply reliability and pricing dynamics.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market picture reflects a mix of bullish and bearish factors. While the global demand forecast remains stable, the decline in prices and tightening inventories suggest a potential shift in market dynamics.

The managed money positioning indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment, although caution is warranted due to potential extreme positions that could lead to reversals. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment to forecast future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-30 23:45:56 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices have been volatile, rising due to tensions in the Middle East but falling back after a ceasefire, with OPEC+ increasing production quotas. Key levels to watch include the pivot at $66.84, with potential drops towards $50. Meanwhile, natural gas shows mixed signals; a heat dome could boost demand despite high storage levels, with prices potentially returning above $4 if weather patterns hold. However, recent bearish trends suggest a drop to $3 may be on the...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-30 23:49

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