Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-31 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bullish
Score: 2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $73.24 $0.73
WTI: $70.0 $0.79
Spread: $3.24 (Brent premium of $3.24)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $69.32
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.23

MA(20): $67.3

Current Price is 69.32, 9 day MA 67.23, 20 day MA 67.3

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.4655

Signal: 0.2042

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 57.78

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 57.78 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,934

Avg (20d): 219,201

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 79.48

%D: 86.6

Stochastic %K: 79.48, %D: 86.6. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.37

+DI: 27.97

-DI: 15.17

ADX: 15.37 (+DI: 27.97, -DI: 15.17). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -20.52

Williams %R: -20.52 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 69.9

Middle: 67.3

Lower: 64.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 69.9, Middle: 67.3, Lower: 64.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $73.24, change $+0.73. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.0, change $+0.79. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.24 (Brent premium of $3.24). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$73.24
0.73
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$70.0
0.79
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.24
Brent premium of $3.24

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and global economic growth forecasts while maintaining a focus on market stability.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Revised global economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand despite minor adjustments.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply and production adjustments.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market balance.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and revised economic growth forecasts. The organization is closely monitoring global demand and supply dynamics, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for market stability."
"Despite the challenges, the global economy shows resilience, which supports our long-term oil demand forecasts."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 70
Last Updated: 2025-07-31 23:48:57

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (12 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.05
Daily: 0.11 (0.11%)
Weekly: 2.4 (2.46%)

US_10Y

4.36
Daily: -0.02 (-0.37%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.59%)

SP500

6339.39
Daily: -23.51 (-0.37%)
Weekly: -49.25 (-0.77%)

VIX

16.72
Daily: 1.24 (8.01%)
Weekly: 1.79 (11.99%)

GOLD

3343.4
Daily: 47.6 (1.44%)
Weekly: 9.4 (0.28%)

COPPER

4.42
Daily: -1.15 (-20.68%)
Weekly: -1.35 (-23.35%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $69.32
Closest Support: $68.07 1.8% below current price
Closest Resistance: $70.51 1.72% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $57.74
0.236 $62.62
0.382 $65.63
0.5 $68.07 Support
0.618 $70.51 Resistance
0.786 $73.98
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.02
1.618 $91.17
2.0 $99.06
2.618 $111.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $69.26
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-31 23:49:00
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-01 $69.24 $65.75 $72.73
2025-08-02 $69.09 $65.6 $72.58
2025-08-03 $68.94 $65.45 $72.43
2025-08-04 $68.91 $65.42 $72.4
2025-08-05 $68.95 $65.46 $72.45

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-08-01), reaching $69.24.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-01 and 2025-08-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The bullish market sentiment is supported by a $3.24 Brent-WTI spread, indicating potential for price strength in the near term. The support levels appear to be around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent), while resistance may be observed near the recent highs. The narrowing of spreads and strengthening backwardation suggest short-term optimism, but traders should remain alert to volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions and tariff policies impacting demand.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The current inventory levels are below the 2015–2019 average, indicating a tightening market that may support higher prices. Hedging strategies may need to be reassessed in light of the positive market sentiment and the potential for increased crude demand from non-OECD countries.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices hovering around $70.00 and $73.24, respectively. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical factors and fluctuating inventory levels could affect procurement strategies. It may be prudent to consider hedging against potential price spikes driven by market sentiment and seasonal demand increases, especially in the gasoline market.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a bullish outlook driven by fundamental demand growth, particularly from non-OECD countries. The balance of supply and demand is tightening, with OPEC's production cuts and declining inventories playing a significant role. The market sentiment is bolstered by recent news and positioning data, suggesting potential price increases. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as they may shift the current outlook significantly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-31 23:45:57 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil recently surged due to rising tensions in the Middle East but plummeted following a ceasefire and OPEC+'s decision to increase production, leading to bearish sentiment with a pivotal level at $66.84. Natural gas, meanwhile, is experiencing a mixed bag: bullish weather forecasts and increased LNG exports could boost demand despite storage levels being 6% above average. Watch for key levels at $3.449 for natural gas and $66.84 for crude as traders navigate this vol...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-31 23:49

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