Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-01 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $72.53 $0.71
WTI: $69.26 $0.74
Spread: $3.27 (Brent premium of $3.27)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.26
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.23

MA(20): $67.34

Current Price is 67.26, 9 day MA 67.23, 20 day MA 67.34

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3944

Signal: 0.2415

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.27

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.27 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 331,673

Avg (20d): 247,839

Ratio: 1.34

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 43.97

%D: 71.21

Stochastic %K: 43.97, %D: 71.21. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.3

+DI: 24.72

-DI: 18.52

ADX: 15.3 (+DI: 24.72, -DI: 18.52). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -56.03

Williams %R: -56.03 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.9

Middle: 67.34

Lower: 64.77

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.9, Middle: 67.34, Lower: 64.77

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $72.53, change $-0.71. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.26, change $-0.74. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.27 (Brent premium of $3.27). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$72.53
0.71
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$69.26
0.74
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.27
Brent premium of $3.27

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious outlook on the oil market, acknowledging recent price declines while highlighting optimism in short-term trading dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across major benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite tariff-related challenges.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned
Crude Oil Production Adjustment Decreased by 106 tb/d In April, averaging about 40.92 mb/d

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating prices and evolving demand dynamics. The organization is committed to adjusting production levels as necessary to align with market conditions and ensure a balanced supply-demand scenario.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 69
Last Updated: 2025-08-01 23:48:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.68
Daily: -1.35 (-1.34%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.03%)

US_10Y

4.22
Daily: -0.14 (-3.21%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-4.52%)

SP500

6238.01
Daily: -101.38 (-1.6%)
Weekly: -151.76 (-2.38%)

VIX

20.38
Daily: 3.66 (21.89%)
Weekly: 5.35 (35.6%)

GOLD

3416.0
Daily: 122.8 (3.73%)
Weekly: 106.9 (3.23%)

COPPER

4.44
Daily: 0.11 (2.6%)
Weekly: -1.15 (-20.59%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.26
Closest Support: $65.63 2.42% below current price
Closest Resistance: $68.07 1.2% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $57.74
0.236 $62.62
0.382 $65.63 Support
0.5 $68.07 Resistance
0.618 $70.51
0.786 $73.98
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.02
1.618 $91.17
2.0 $99.06
2.618 $111.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $69.26
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-01 23:48:52
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-01 $69.23 $65.74 $72.72
2025-08-02 $69.08 $65.59 $72.57
2025-08-03 $68.93 $65.44 $72.42
2025-08-04 $68.9 $65.41 $72.39
2025-08-05 $68.95 $65.46 $72.44

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-08-01), reaching $69.23.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-01 and 2025-08-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.600. Price movements show a decline in crude oil values, with Brent at $72.53 and WTI at $69.26. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.27, reflecting ongoing supply/demand dynamics. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, particularly as managed money positions are showing signs of weakening, with a net position of 97,387 contracts. Look for key support levels around $66.46 (Brent) and $62.96 (WTI) as possible points for short-term opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With bearish sentiment prevailing in the market and crude production by DoC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d, producers should reassess production planning and hedging strategies. The recent increase in OECD commercial crude inventories by 21.4 mb suggests a need to manage supply carefully. The impact of geopolitical factors could further complicate operations, especially with ongoing concerns about sanctions and trade tariffs affecting global demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure, with WTI and Brent showing declines. The reliability of supply may be impacted by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, with OECD product stocks down by 11.2 mb. It's advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these risks, especially in light of the negative sentiment surrounding global energy demand.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of weak demand signals and rising inventories. Key factors include a marginal increase in global oil demand and a slight decline in non-DoC liquids supply. The current positioning of managed money traders indicates a weakening bullish sentiment, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their impact on supply chains as well as the evolving economic landscape affecting demand.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-01 23:45:58 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices faced volatility with recent tensions between Israel and Iran, but a ceasefire led to a swift decline as demand fears arose, especially with OPEC+ increasing output. Key support levels are at $63.80 and $61.64, while a bearish outlook suggests a potential drop to $50. In contrast, natural gas sees a bullish tilt due to rising July temperatures and increased LNG exports, although production remains robust. Key support for nat gas lies at $3.24, with potenti...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-01 23:49

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