Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-02 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $72.55 $0.02
WTI: $67.33 $1.93
Spread: $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.33
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.24

MA(20): $67.34

Current Price is 67.33, 9 day MA 67.24, 20 day MA 67.34

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.4

Signal: 0.2426

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.5

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 247,031

Avg (20d): 243,607

Ratio: 1.01

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 45.17

%D: 71.61

Stochastic %K: 45.17, %D: 71.61. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.3

+DI: 24.72

-DI: 18.52

ADX: 15.3 (+DI: 24.72, -DI: 18.52). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -54.83

Williams %R: -54.83 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.9

Middle: 67.34

Lower: 64.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.9, Middle: 67.34, Lower: 64.78

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $72.55, change $+0.02. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $67.33, change $-1.93. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$72.55
0.02
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.33
1.93
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$5.22
Brent premium of $5.22

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic indicators.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
OECD Commercial Oil Inventories 2,740 mb 10.3 mb higher, m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support prices and ensure a balanced market, while also responding to economic uncertainties and shifts in global demand.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook reflects a cautious optimism, with adjustments being made to align with actual demand data." - OPEC Report

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-08-02 23:48:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.69
Daily: -1.34 (-1.34%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.03%)

US_10Y

4.22
Daily: -0.14 (-3.21%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-4.52%)

SP500

6238.01
Daily: -101.38 (-1.6%)
Weekly: -151.76 (-2.38%)

VIX

20.38
Daily: 3.66 (21.89%)
Weekly: 5.35 (35.6%)

GOLD

3347.7
Daily: 54.5 (1.65%)
Weekly: 38.6 (1.17%)

COPPER

4.41
Daily: 0.08 (1.89%)
Weekly: -1.18 (-21.13%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.33
Closest Support: $65.63 2.52% below current price
Closest Resistance: $68.07 1.1% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $57.74
0.236 $62.62
0.382 $65.63 Support
0.5 $68.07 Resistance
0.618 $70.51
0.786 $73.98
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.02
1.618 $91.17
2.0 $99.06
2.618 $111.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.33
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-02 23:48:53
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.24%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-02 $67.17 $64.49 $69.84
2025-08-03 $67.04 $64.36 $69.72
2025-08-04 $67.06 $64.38 $69.74
2025-08-05 $67.14 $64.47 $69.82
2025-08-06 $67.25 $64.57 $69.93

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.24% for the next trading day (2025-08-02), reaching $67.17.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-02 and 2025-08-06.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~8.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in $5.02 (6.8%) for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates potential bearish sentiment in the market. The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread suggests a convergence in price dynamics, reflecting a tighter market. Traders should watch for support around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent) as potential rebound levels, while resistance could be seen near the recent highs. The risk of volatility remains high due to geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts suggesting a slowdown in demand growth.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, which are 173 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Producers should consider adjusting production planning and hedging strategies in response to the bearish sentiment in the market and declining refinery margins, particularly in Europe and Asia. The strategy of maintaining flexibility in production rates may mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand forecasts.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The risk of supply disruptions is heightened due to geopolitical tensions and declining inventories. The recent uptick in crude imports into China and India could impact procurement strategies, especially if demand continues to outpace supply. Monitoring the support levels around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent) will be crucial for budgeting and cost management.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by bearish sentiment driven by demand fears and geopolitical uncertainties. Key factors include the balance of supply and demand showing slight increases in non-DoC liquids supply, while global demand growth remains steady. The positioning data indicates a weakening bullish sentiment from managed money, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should be vigilant about the implications of fluctuating refinery margins and the impact of geopolitical developments on pricing trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-02 23:46:07 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices experienced volatility amid rising tensions in the Middle East, only to retreat following a ceasefire and OPEC+ announcing increased output. This shift has left traders bearish, focusing on the pivotal $66.84 mark, with potential drops towards $50. Meanwhile, natural gas sees a split narrative; demand may rise due to heat and LNG exports, despite ample storage. Key technical levels for gas are set, with a drop to $3 likely if bearish sentiment persists. Wa...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-02 23:49

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