Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-04 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $72.55 $0.02
WTI: $67.33 $1.93
Spread: $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.09
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.23

MA(20): $67.25

Current Price is 66.09, 9 day MA 67.23, 20 day MA 67.25

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.2489

Signal: 0.2439

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.55

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,843

Avg (20d): 232,741

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 23.79

%D: 49.14

Stochastic %K: 23.79, %D: 49.14. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.58

+DI: 23.59

-DI: 21.26

ADX: 14.58 (+DI: 23.59, -DI: 21.26). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -76.21

Williams %R: -76.21 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.85

Middle: 67.25

Lower: 64.65

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.85, Middle: 67.25, Lower: 64.65

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $72.55, change $+0.02. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $67.33, change $-1.93. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$72.55
0.02
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.33
1.93
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$5.22
Brent premium of $5.22

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging the challenges posed by economic fluctuations while maintaining a positive outlook on demand growth.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with slight revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, albeit revised downwards.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability amidst fluctuating prices and economic uncertainties. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively and respond to changes in global demand.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 38
Last Updated: 2025-08-04 23:48:28

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.84
Daily: 0.15 (0.16%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-0.07%)

US_10Y

4.2
Daily: -0.02 (-0.47%)
Weekly: -0.13 (-3.0%)

SP500

6329.94
Daily: 91.93 (1.47%)
Weekly: -40.92 (-0.64%)

VIX

17.52
Daily: -2.86 (-14.03%)
Weekly: 1.54 (9.64%)

GOLD

3427.4
Daily: 79.7 (2.38%)
Weekly: 104.0 (3.13%)

COPPER

4.45
Daily: 0.04 (0.83%)
Weekly: -1.15 (-20.6%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.09
Closest Support: $64.14 2.95% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.87 1.18% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74
0.236 $64.14 Support
0.382 $66.87 Resistance
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.29
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-04 23:48:30
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-05 $66.15 $63.93 $68.37
2025-08-06 $66.17 $63.95 $68.39
2025-08-07 $66.28 $64.06 $68.5
2025-08-08 $66.41 $64.19 $68.63
2025-08-09 $66.47 $64.25 $68.7

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-08-05), reaching $66.15.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-05 and 2025-08-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.700. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $5.22, indicating a premium for Brent, which could reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, as these levels may provide opportunities for short-term trades amidst volatility. The narrowing of spreads and strengthening backwardation signals potential for price recovery; however, caution is advised due to the overall market sentiment and positioning trends which show weakening bullish sentiment. Look for potential risks related to oversupply concerns and geopolitical developments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the balance of supply and demand indicating a slight increase in demand for DoC crude, producers should consider adjusting production planning accordingly. The current inventory levels show a rise in OECD commercial oil inventories, which may necessitate a reevaluation of hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. The bearish sentiment in the market could impact pricing power, urging producers to focus on cost management and operational efficiency. Additionally, the recent decline in crude production from DoC countries necessitates close monitoring to understand its implications on market dynamics.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The current WTI price of $67.33 and Brent at $72.55 may affect procurement strategies. With geopolitical factors influencing supply reliability and the recent increase in crude imports by China and India, there may be opportunities for strategic procurement. The negative sentiment around global energy demand could also impact long-term planning, suggesting a need for effective hedging solutions to protect against price surges.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.700. Key driving factors include a slight upward revision in demand forecasts, juxtaposed against rising inventories and OPEC production levels. The balance of supply and demand suggests a tightening market, but the overall economic growth forecasts indicate potential headwinds. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical tensions and trading strategies that leverage the current market conditions, particularly around the Brent-WTI spread and recent shifts in positioning from managed money traders.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-04 23:45:52 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war, influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions, trading around key levels like $66.84, with a bearish outlook looming as surplus concerns mount. Meanwhile, natural gas is navigating a mixed landscape; despite strong demand signals from July's heat and increased LNG exports, high production levels have pushed prices down, hovering around $3. Watch for potential price movements in crude as traders react to OPEC+ output in...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-04 23:49

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