Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-05 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.76 $0.91
WTI: $66.29 $1.04
Spread: $2.47 (Brent premium of $2.47)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.54
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.28

MA(20): $67.12

Current Price is 65.54, 9 day MA 67.28, 20 day MA 67.12

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0962

Signal: 0.2169

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.84

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,210

Avg (20d): 235,684

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 14.31

%D: 28.91

Stochastic %K: 14.31, %D: 28.91. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.38

+DI: 21.88

-DI: 22.75

ADX: 13.38 (+DI: 21.88, -DI: 22.75). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -85.69

Williams %R: -85.69 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.76

Middle: 67.12

Lower: 64.48

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.76, Middle: 67.12, Lower: 64.48

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13314.0 13273.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6136.0 5976.0 6871.0 6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2698.0 3855.0 4186.0 4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16911.0 16936.0 16407.0 16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3438.0 2121.0 2685.0 2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426691.0 418993.0 436485.0 433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1660512.0 1653187.0 1665878.0 1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 228405.0 231129.0 227422.0 222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113536.0 109901.0 125313.0 117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.76, change $-0.91. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $66.29, change $-1.04. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.47 (Brent premium of $2.47). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.76
0.91
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$66.29
1.04
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.47
Brent premium of $2.47

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious yet optimistic, reflecting a steady growth in global oil demand and a slight recovery in crude prices, despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and global refining operations.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance with Production Agreements Decreased by 106 tb/d in April Average production at 40.92 mb/d

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization acknowledges the challenges posed by economic uncertainties but expresses confidence in the resilience of oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support market balance.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting an increase in market confidence."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 42
Last Updated: 2025-08-05 23:48:45

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.72
Daily: -0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly: -1.22 (-1.22%)

US_10Y

4.2
Daily: -0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly: -0.18 (-4.11%)

SP500

6299.19
Daily: -30.75 (-0.49%)
Weekly: -63.71 (-1.0%)

VIX

17.85
Daily: 0.33 (1.88%)
Weekly: 2.37 (15.31%)

GOLD

3429.4
Daily: 55.0 (1.63%)
Weekly: 133.6 (4.05%)

COPPER

4.39
Daily: -0.02 (-0.51%)
Weekly: -1.18 (-21.14%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.54
Closest Support: $64.14 2.14% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.87 2.03% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74
0.236 $64.14 Support
0.382 $66.87 Resistance
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.16
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-05 23:48:47
Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-06 $65.17 $62.91 $67.42
2025-08-07 $65.28 $63.02 $67.54
2025-08-08 $65.44 $63.18 $67.7
2025-08-09 $65.53 $63.27 $67.78
2025-08-10 $65.59 $63.33 $67.84

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-08-06), reaching $65.17.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-06 and 2025-08-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential price pressures. The $68.76 for Brent and $66.29 for WTI suggest that traders should be cautious of further declines, especially with the Brent-WTI spread of $2.47 reflecting ongoing supply dynamics.

The narrowing spread suggests a potential convergence in pricing, but the risk of oversupply remains, particularly with OPEC output increases. Traders should monitor Fibonacci levels for potential support around $65.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, as these could serve as critical points for short-term trading strategies.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of increasing global oil supply and the bearish sentiment reflected in the market. With OECD commercial crude inventories rising to 1,323 mb, this could pressure prices further, impacting revenue forecasts.

It is essential to reassess hedging strategies in light of current market conditions, especially with $68.98/b for the OPEC Reference Basket. Additionally, the slight decline in production from OPEC nations may create opportunities for strategic planning in production adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, currently at $68.76 for Brent. The bearish sentiment signals a need for careful procurement planning to mitigate risks associated with price spikes.

Additionally, with global oil demand projected to grow modestly, supply reliability could be impacted by geopolitical factors. Thus, consumers may want to consider hedging strategies to secure favorable pricing, especially in light of fluctuating import levels from key suppliers.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture with bearish fundamentals driven by rising inventories and OPEC output increases. The balance of supply and demand suggests a cautious outlook, with global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d being offset by a bearish sentiment in the market.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the $68.76 Brent price and the $66.29 WTI price, alongside geopolitical developments that could shift market dynamics. The sentiment analysis and positioning data indicate a potential for volatility, which could lead to significant outlook shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-05 23:46:03 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil saw a rollercoaster ride this week, initially climbing due to Middle East tensions but tumbling after a ceasefire and OPEC+ ramped up output, pushing prices potentially down to $50. Key levels are 66.84 (pivot), with support at 63.80 and 61.64. In contrast, natural gas is caught between bullish demand from hot weather and increased LNG exports, despite storage being 6% higher. Watch for resistance at 3.525 and support at 3.24. With markets in flux, remain alert f...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-05 23:49

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