Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-06 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.64 $1.12
WTI: $65.16 $1.13
Spread: $2.48 (Brent premium of $2.48)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.02
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.13

MA(20): $66.93

Current Price is 65.02, 9 day MA 67.13, 20 day MA 66.93

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.102

Signal: 0.1483

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.33

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.33 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,461

Avg (20d): 238,651

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 12.16

%D: 15.72

Stochastic %K: 12.16, %D: 15.72. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.07

+DI: 21.04

-DI: 24.91

ADX: 13.07 (+DI: 21.04, -DI: 24.91). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -87.84

Williams %R: -87.84 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.7

Middle: 66.93

Lower: 64.16

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.7, Middle: 66.93, Lower: 64.16

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.64, change $-1.12. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.16, change $-1.13. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.48 (Brent premium of $2.48). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.64
1.12
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$65.16
1.13
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.48
Brent premium of $2.48

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins across different regions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels Not Mentioned N/A

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to changing market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to achieve a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations for 2025 and 2026."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 65
Last Updated: 2025-08-06 23:48:29

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (14 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.25
Daily: -0.53 (-0.54%)
Weekly: -1.78 (-1.78%)

US_10Y

4.22
Daily: 0.02 (0.57%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.21%)

SP500

6345.06
Daily: 45.87 (0.73%)
Weekly: 5.67 (0.09%)

VIX

16.77
Daily: -1.08 (-6.05%)
Weekly: 0.05 (0.3%)

GOLD

3440.4
Daily: 58.5 (1.73%)
Weekly: 147.2 (4.47%)

COPPER

4.41
Daily: 0.05 (1.05%)
Weekly: 0.08 (1.84%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.02
Closest Support: $64.14 1.35% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.87 2.85% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74
0.236 $64.14 Support
0.382 $66.87 Resistance
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.35
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-06 23:48:31
Next Trading Day: UP 0.16%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-07 $64.45 $62.18 $66.72
2025-08-08 $64.61 $62.34 $66.88
2025-08-09 $64.71 $62.44 $66.99
2025-08-10 $64.8 $62.52 $67.07
2025-08-11 $64.84 $62.57 $67.11

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2025-08-07), reaching $64.45.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-07 and 2025-08-11.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, indicates a bearish sentiment in the market. The resistance levels appear to be around $70.00, while support levels are forming near $65.00. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $2.48 suggests a tightening market dynamic that may present short-term trading opportunities. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand forecasts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With crude oil production from OPEC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d in April, producers should reassess their production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices. The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude at 1,323 mb, indicate a supply-demand imbalance that could affect market stability. The bearish sentiment reflected in news sentiment analysis should prompt producers to closely monitor market conditions and adjust their operations accordingly.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the market remains bearish. The $66.46 Brent price and $62.96 WTI price indicate that procurement costs may remain volatile. Additionally, geopolitical risks and the current inventory levels, which are below the 2015-2019 average, could impact supply reliability. Companies should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price increases and supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and weakening demand forecasts. Key driving factors include a reduction in OPEC production, stable but lower global demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. The balance of supply and demand remains precarious, with potential shifts in sentiment as economic indicators evolve. Analysts should focus on monitoring CFTC positioning, particularly the managed money net position, which indicates a weakening bullish sentiment that could signal future market adjustments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-06 23:45:54 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil faced volatility as tensions in the Middle East initially drove prices up, only to plunge after a ceasefire and OPEC+ ramped up production. Key support levels to watch are 63.80 and 61.64, with a bearish outlook suggesting a possible drop to $50. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are buoyed by hot summer weather and rising LNG exports, despite storage concerns. A recovery above $3 indicates resilience, but traders eye a potential decline towards $3.44. Keep an eye on...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-06 23:48

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