Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-07 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.89 $0.75
WTI: $64.35 $0.81
Spread: $2.54 (Brent premium of $2.54)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387
Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.79
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $66.9

MA(20): $66.76

Current Price is 63.79, 9 day MA 66.9, 20 day MA 66.76

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.3717

Signal: 0.0357

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.88

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.88 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,953

Avg (20d): 243,234

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 2.18

%D: 6.76

Stochastic %K: 2.18, %D: 6.76. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.32

+DI: 19.05

-DI: 24.58

ADX: 13.32 (+DI: 19.05, -DI: 24.58). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -97.82

Williams %R: -97.82 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.93

Middle: 66.76

Lower: 63.58

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.93, Middle: 66.76, Lower: 63.58

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.89, change $-0.75. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $64.35, change $-0.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.54 (Brent premium of $2.54). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.89
0.75
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.35
0.81
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.54
Brent premium of $2.54

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuations in supply and pricing.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among member countries to address supply-demand imbalances and support price recovery in the face of global economic uncertainties.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387
Change: -850
4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111
Change: +5,021
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703
Change: -2,757
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873
Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 74
Last Updated: 2025-08-07 23:48:45

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (14 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.14
Daily: -0.04 (-0.04%)
Weekly: -0.55 (-0.56%)

US_10Y

4.24
Daily: 0.02 (0.57%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.57%)

SP500

6340.0
Daily: -5.06 (-0.08%)
Weekly: 101.99 (1.63%)

VIX

16.57
Daily: -0.2 (-1.19%)
Weekly: -3.81 (-18.69%)

GOLD

3487.9
Daily: 107.9 (3.19%)
Weekly: 140.2 (4.19%)

COPPER

4.42
Daily: 0.03 (0.65%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.16%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.79
Closest Support: $59.74 6.35% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.55% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.88
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-07 23:48:48
Next Trading Day: UP 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-08 $64.03 $61.75 $66.3
2025-08-09 $64.13 $61.85 $66.4
2025-08-10 $64.22 $61.94 $66.49
2025-08-11 $64.27 $62.0 $66.55
2025-08-12 $64.29 $62.02 $66.57

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-08-08), reaching $64.03.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-08 and 2025-08-12.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests potential downside risks for crude oil prices. With the Brent crude at $66.89 and WTI crude at $64.35, the balance of supply and demand appears slightly tilted towards oversupply, particularly given the increase in OECD commercial oil inventories.

The Brent-WTI spread currently at $2.54 indicates a neutral market dynamic, reflecting ongoing variations in global and U.S. supply/demand. Traders should monitor for potential volatility, especially as the $66 to $68 range for Brent may serve as critical levels in the short term.

Short-term opportunities could arise from any shifts in geopolitical sentiment or unexpected supply disruptions, particularly with ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics, with bearish sentiment and increasing inventory levels, suggest a need for cautious production planning. The decline in global crude oil demand growth forecasts may impact revenue projections, necessitating a review of hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility.

The balance of supply and demand indicates that while demand for DoC crude is slightly increasing, overall market conditions remain challenging. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to these signals and explore options for optimizing operational costs.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Given the current bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, especially as WTI and Brent prices hover around $64.35 and $66.89, respectively.

The reliability of supply may be impacted by geopolitical factors and the recent decline in OECD commercial oil inventories. As such, procurement strategies should be reassessed to ensure adequate supply amidst potential disruptions.

Additionally, considering the current market conditions, it may be prudent to explore hedging options to mitigate risks associated with rising fuel costs.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture characterized by bearish sentiment, driven by a combination of weak demand forecasts and rising inventory levels. The balance of supply and demand indicates that while non-OECD demand may support some growth, overall global demand is under pressure.

Technical indicators, including the narrowing Brent-WTI spread, suggest a divergence in the market, reflecting localized supply/demand dynamics. The positioning data indicates that while Managed Money remains bullish, the weakening sentiment could signal potential market corrections.

Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical landscape and its implications for crude prices, as well as the impact of macroeconomic factors influencing both supply and demand.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-07 23:46:02 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices fluctuated recently, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions but dropping following a ceasefire and OPEC+ increasing supply. A bearish outlook looms with key levels at $66.84 (pivot) and potential drops towards $50. In contrast, natural gas shows resilience, bolstered by a heat wave and strong LNG exports, yet faces pressure from increased storage. Key levels include $3.449 (pivot) for possible declines to $3. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-07 23:49

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