Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-08 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.43 $0.46
WTI: $63.88 $0.47
Spread: $2.55 (Brent premium of $2.55)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.35
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $66.54

MA(20): $66.51

Current Price is 63.35, 9 day MA 66.54, 20 day MA 66.51

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5665

Signal: -0.0836

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 38.63

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 38.63 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 292,968

Avg (20d): 261,146

Ratio: 1.12

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 7.49

%D: 7.11

Stochastic %K: 7.49, %D: 7.11. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.74

+DI: 17.39

-DI: 25.65

ADX: 13.74 (+DI: 17.39, -DI: 25.65). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -92.51

Williams %R: -92.51 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.9

Middle: 66.51

Lower: 63.12

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.9, Middle: 66.51, Lower: 63.12

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.43, change $-0.46. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.88, change $-0.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.55 (Brent premium of $2.55). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.43
0.46
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.88
0.47
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.55
Brent premium of $2.55

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth while acknowledging challenges in supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised down slightly.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels in response to changing demand dynamics, while also monitoring the impact of non-OPEC supply growth on overall market conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-08-08 23:48:43

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (11 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.26
Daily: -0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly: -0.51 (-0.52%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.04 (0.97%)
Weekly: 0.09 (2.02%)

SP500

6389.45
Daily: 49.45 (0.78%)
Weekly: 59.51 (0.94%)

VIX

15.15
Daily: -1.42 (-8.57%)
Weekly: -2.37 (-13.53%)

GOLD

3458.2
Daily: 57.9 (1.7%)
Weekly: 83.8 (2.48%)

COPPER

4.49
Daily: 0.11 (2.43%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.59%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.35
Closest Support: $59.74 5.7% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 1.25% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.88
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-08 23:48:45
Next Trading Day: UP 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-08 $64.03 $61.75 $66.3
2025-08-09 $64.13 $61.85 $66.4
2025-08-10 $64.22 $61.94 $66.49
2025-08-11 $64.27 $61.99 $66.54
2025-08-12 $64.29 $62.01 $66.56

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-08-08), reaching $64.03.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-08 and 2025-08-12.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The Brent crude price is currently at $66.43 and WTI at $63.88, with the Brent-WTI spread at $2.55. This spread indicates ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, which may present short-term trading opportunities.

With the support level for WTI around $62.00 and resistance at $66.00, traders should watch for volatility as prices approach these levels. The narrowing spread between Brent and WTI may also suggest convergence in market dynamics, warranting a close eye on geopolitical developments that could influence pricing.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is bearish, which may impact production planning. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, significantly below the 2015-2019 average, producers might need to adjust output strategies to align with demand forecasts, which suggest a slight increase in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025.

Hedging strategies should be considered in light of the predicted price volatility and the current inventory levels. The bearish sentiment and inventory trends indicate potential risks that could affect operational profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $63.88 and $66.43, respectively. The geopolitical risks and inventory pressures could lead to supply reliability issues, especially as crude imports into the US and OECD Europe have shown mixed trends.

With the bearish sentiment prevailing, it may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility and ensure stable supply chains, particularly in light of fluctuating demand forecasts.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook, as indicated by the sentiment analysis and recent price movements. Key driving factors include fundamental supply and demand dynamics, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while supply from non-DoC countries is forecasted to increase at a slower pace.

The geopolitical landscape and economic forecasts, particularly from major economies, indicate potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these trends, as they could lead to significant outlook adjustments in both short- and long-term forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific investment recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-08 23:45:59 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices have been volatile, recently boosted by geopolitical tensions but quickly dampened by a ceasefire and increased OPEC+ production. The bearish outlook suggests a drop below $66.84, potentially heading towards $50. In contrast, natural gas is experiencing mixed signals with higher LNG exports countered by cooler summer weather, leading to a decline under $3. Traders should monitor key levels: crude's 66.84 pivot and natural gas's 3.449 pivot for potential ma...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-08 23:49

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved