Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-10 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.59 $0.16
WTI: $63.88 $0.0
Spread: $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.56
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $65.97

MA(20): $66.36

Current Price is 63.56, 9 day MA 65.97, 20 day MA 66.36

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.6689

Signal: -0.1939

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.14

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.14 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 13,306

Avg (20d): 248,995

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 10.21

%D: 9.35

Stochastic %K: 10.21, %D: 9.35. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.13

+DI: 16.86

-DI: 24.85

ADX: 14.13 (+DI: 16.86, -DI: 24.85). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -89.79

Williams %R: -89.79 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.89

Middle: 66.36

Lower: 62.83

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.89, Middle: 66.36, Lower: 62.83

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.59, change $+0.16. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.88, change $0.0. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.59
0.16
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.88
0.0
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.71
Brent premium of $2.71

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth and adjustments in supply forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Crude oil price movements indicate a decline in basket values.
  • Global economic growth forecasts show slight revisions, particularly for major economies.
  • World oil demand is projected to grow steadily in the coming years.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts have been revised down.
  • OECD commercial oil inventories remain below the 5-year average.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 5-year average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to address potential oversupply and ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has shown a positive revision, indicating a resilient market outlook."
"Despite some downward revisions in supply forecasts, the overall sentiment remains optimistic about future demand growth."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 35
Last Updated: 2025-08-10 23:48:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.06
Daily: -0.12 (-0.12%)
Weekly: -0.72 (-0.73%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.04 (0.97%)
Weekly: 0.09 (2.02%)

SP500

6389.45
Daily: 49.45 (0.78%)
Weekly: 59.51 (0.94%)

VIX

15.15
Daily: -1.42 (-8.57%)
Weekly: -2.37 (-13.53%)

GOLD

3438.7
Daily: -0.4 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 56.8 (1.68%)

COPPER

4.48
Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.57%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.56
Closest Support: $59.74 6.01% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.91% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.88
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-10 23:48:53
Next Trading Day: UP 0.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-09 $63.97 $61.7 $66.24
2025-08-10 $64.06 $61.79 $66.33
2025-08-11 $64.11 $61.84 $66.39
2025-08-12 $64.14 $61.87 $66.41
2025-08-13 $64.13 $61.86 $66.4

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-08-09), reaching $63.97.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-09 and 2025-08-13.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market landscape indicates a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.600. Price movements have shown a significant decline, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b and Brent settling at $66.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $2.71, reflecting ongoing supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical factors. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the weakening managed money positioning with a net position of 81,337 contracts, down by 16,050 contracts. Short-term opportunities may arise from the current backwardation in the forward curves, indicating potential price recovery, but traders should remain vigilant of resistance levels and external geopolitical developments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The recent inventory levels indicate a tightening supply situation, with OECD commercial oil inventories standing at 2,740 mb, slightly above the 2015–2019 average. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with the upward revisions in demand forecasts, particularly for 2025 and 2026, which suggest an increase in demand for DoC crude. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited in light of the current market sentiment and potential risks from geopolitical developments affecting supply chains.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly given the current WTI price of $63.88 and Brent at $66.59. The geopolitical landscape, especially regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, poses a risk to supply reliability. With US crude imports declining and product exports increasing, it is essential for consumers to assess procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential price spikes. The tightening inventory levels may also influence procurement decisions, emphasizing the need for strategic planning.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices across major benchmarks and a weakening managed money positioning. The anticipated growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions, suggests potential bullish drivers in the long term, but this is tempered by current geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts should focus on the implications of supply-demand dynamics and monitor the evolving sentiment as it may signal shifts in market outlook. The interplay between inventory levels and production adjustments from OPEC+ will be crucial in shaping future price trajectories.

Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-10 23:46:03 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices have fluctuated recently, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions before falling sharply with a ceasefire and OPEC+ increasing production quotas. The pivotal level to watch is $66.84, with bearish sentiment suggesting potential drops to $50. In contrast, natural gas is facing a mixed scenario; while higher LNG exports and summer heat could boost demand, current storage levels are 6% above average, leading traders to anticipate a price drop to $3. Key...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-10 23:49

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved