Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-11 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.59 $0.16
WTI: $63.88 $0.0
Spread: $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.16
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.03

MA(20): $66.39

Current Price is 64.16, 9 day MA 66.03, 20 day MA 66.39

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.621

Signal: -0.1843

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 41.42

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 41.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,168

Avg (20d): 249,709

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 17.96

%D: 11.93

Stochastic %K: 17.96, %D: 11.93. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.13

+DI: 17.18

-DI: 25.33

ADX: 14.13 (+DI: 17.18, -DI: 25.33). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.04

Williams %R: -82.04 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.84

Middle: 66.39

Lower: 62.95

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.84, Middle: 66.39, Lower: 62.95

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.59, change $+0.16. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.88, change $0.0. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.59
0.16
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.88
0.0
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.71
Brent premium of $2.71

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious yet optimistic, reflecting a steady growth in global oil demand amidst fluctuating crude prices and economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product markets.
  • Changes in tanker market dynamics and freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating prices and global economic uncertainties. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to manage supply effectively and support a balanced market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 38
Last Updated: 2025-08-11 23:48:27

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.49
Daily: 0.31 (0.32%)
Weekly: -0.29 (-0.29%)

US_10Y

4.27
Daily: -0.01 (-0.28%)
Weekly: 0.08 (1.84%)

SP500

6373.45
Daily: -16.0 (-0.25%)
Weekly: 74.26 (1.18%)

VIX

16.25
Daily: 1.1 (7.26%)
Weekly: -1.6 (-8.96%)

GOLD

3402.2
Daily: -36.9 (-1.07%)
Weekly: 20.3 (0.6%)

COPPER

4.46
Daily: 0.01 (0.19%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.29%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.16
Closest Support: $64.14 0.03% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.87 4.22% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74
0.236 $64.14 Support
0.382 $66.87 Resistance
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.96
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-11 23:48:29
Next Trading Day: UP 0.14%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-12 $64.05 $61.78 $66.32
2025-08-13 $64.1 $61.84 $66.37
2025-08-14 $64.13 $61.86 $66.39
2025-08-15 $64.12 $61.86 $66.39
2025-08-16 $64.12 $61.85 $66.38

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2025-08-12), reaching $64.05.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-12 and 2025-08-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution in trading strategies. With the Brent-WTI spread at $2.71, there may be short-term opportunities for arbitrage, but the narrowing spread indicates a potential convergence in pricing dynamics. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 (WTI) and resistance near $66.46 (Brent) for potential entry or exit points. The risk of volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. Additionally, the managed money positioning indicates a weakening bullish sentiment, which could lead to further price corrections if traders start to liquidate positions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, indicate a tightening supply relative to historical averages. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the projected 1.3 mb/d increase in global oil demand for 2025. Hedging strategies might need to be revisited given the market sentiment and the potential for price declines. Close monitoring of geopolitical developments is essential, as these could impact both supply reliability and pricing in the near term.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices currently at Brent: $66.59 and WTI: $63.88, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The geopolitical risks and current inventory levels may affect supply reliability, particularly with the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. Companies should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against price increases, especially given the downward pressure on refining margins in some regions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by geopolitical concerns and a slight increase in inventories. The fundamental balance indicates a modest growth in demand against a backdrop of stable supply, although revisions show a slight decline in non-DoC supply growth. Analysts should closely monitor the CFTC positioning data, which reflects a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders. The outlook remains cautious, with potential shifts dependent on macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-11 23:45:52 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil has seen volatility recently, spiking on Israel-Iran tensions before retreating following a ceasefire and OPEC+ decision to increase production. Currently, the bearish outlook looms as prices hover around the crucial $66.84 level, with a potential drop to $50 if support fails. Conversely, natural gas is affected by a July Heat Dome and rising LNG exports, making demand outlook bullish despite high storage levels. Traders should monitor key price levels closely as...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-11 23:49

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