Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-14 15:18

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.63 $0.49
WTI: $62.65 $0.52
Spread: $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.06
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $64.16

MA(20): $65.85

Current Price is 64.06, 9 day MA 64.16, 20 day MA 65.85

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9175

Signal: -0.5277

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.37

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.37 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 214,546

Avg (20d): 267,869

Ratio: 0.8

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 24.74

%D: 12.73

Stochastic %K: 24.74, %D: 12.73. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.67

+DI: 16.74

-DI: 24.65

ADX: 15.67 (+DI: 16.74, -DI: 24.65). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -75.26

Williams %R: -75.26 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.93

Middle: 65.85

Lower: 61.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.93, Middle: 65.85, Lower: 61.78

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.63, change $-0.49. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.65, change $-0.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.63
0.49
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.65
0.52
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.98
Brent premium of $2.98

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns about market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market balance.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and balancing supply and demand dynamics, while closely monitoring global economic trends and production levels from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. The organization is prepared to adjust its strategies as necessary to support oil prices and ensure a stable market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in the market's balance."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-08-14 15:17:37

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (8 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.22
Daily: 0.38 (0.39%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.04%)

US_10Y

4.29
Daily: 0.06 (1.3%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.19%)

SP500

6467.2
Daily: 0.62 (0.01%)
Weekly: 77.75 (1.22%)

VIX

14.73
Daily: 0.24 (1.66%)
Weekly: -0.42 (-2.77%)

GOLD

3386.8
Daily: 28.1 (0.84%)
Weekly: -52.3 (-1.52%)

COPPER

4.5
Daily: 0.02 (0.45%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.04%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.06
Closest Support: $59.74 6.74% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.12% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.65
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-14 15:17:39
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-14 $62.67 $60.52 $64.81
2025-08-15 $62.68 $60.53 $64.82
2025-08-16 $62.7 $60.56 $64.85
2025-08-17 $62.76 $60.61 $64.9
2025-08-18 $62.78 $60.64 $64.93

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-08-14), reaching $62.67.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-14 and 2025-08-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The bearish sentiment in the market is reflected in the recent price movements, with the OPEC Reference Basket declining to an average of $68.98/b and ICE Brent settling at $66.46/b. The support level for Brent is around $65.63, while resistance may be encountered near $70. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $2.98 indicates a convergence of supply/demand dynamics, suggesting potential short-term volatility. Traders should monitor the sentiment score of -0.600 and the managed money net position's decline as indicators of market momentum.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, significantly below the 2015–2019 average. The bearish sentiment from the news and CFTC positioning suggests a need for cautious production planning. Hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in light of the weakening managed money positioning, which could impact future pricing. The forecast for 42.6 mb/d demand for DoC crude in 2025 indicates a slight upward revision, providing some optimism for production levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure, with current levels at $62.65 and $65.63, respectively. Geopolitical tensions and declining inventories may pose supply reliability risks. The bearish sentiment in the market suggests that procurement strategies should be revisited, particularly for refined products, as demand dynamics shift.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiments, as indicated by the news sentiment score of -0.600, and fundamental factors showing a slight upward revision in demand forecasts for DoC crude. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread suggests that geopolitical factors and supply dynamics are becoming increasingly influential. Analysts should focus on the potential shifts in market outlook as managed money positioning weakens, indicating a possible reversal in trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-14 15:15:08 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil recently experienced volatility, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Iran, but it swiftly declined following a ceasefire announcement. OPEC+'s decision to boost production led to a bearish outlook, with key support levels at 63.80 and 61.64 against resistance at 68.48 and 71.41. The pivotal line to watch is 66.84, with a potential drop towards $50 looming. As traders balance supply concerns with demand worries, the market remains in...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-14 15:18

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