Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-14 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.63 $0.49
WTI: $62.65 $0.52
Spread: $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.83
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $64.13

MA(20): $65.84

Current Price is 63.83, 9 day MA 64.13, 20 day MA 65.84

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9358

Signal: -0.5314

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 42.33

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 42.33 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,588

Avg (20d): 257,196

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 22.05

%D: 11.84

Stochastic %K: 22.05, %D: 11.84. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.62

+DI: 16.97

-DI: 24.66

ADX: 15.62 (+DI: 16.97, -DI: 24.66). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -77.95

Williams %R: -77.95 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.94

Middle: 65.84

Lower: 61.75

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.94, Middle: 65.84, Lower: 61.75

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.63, change $-0.49. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.65, change $-0.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.63
0.49
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.65
0.52
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.98
Brent premium of $2.98

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding market stability, reflecting adjustments in forecasts while acknowledging ongoing challenges in global oil supply and demand dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and mixed performance across different markets.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts with minor revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuating refinery margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Crude Oil Production by DoC Countries (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also adapting its strategies in response to evolving economic conditions and market signals. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate potential challenges ahead.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is showing signs of resilience, indicating a positive outlook for OPEC's role in the market."
"We must remain vigilant and responsive to changes in both the global economy and oil market fundamentals."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-08-14 23:48:58

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.07
Daily: 0.23 (0.23%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-0.12%)

US_10Y

4.29
Daily: 0.06 (1.3%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.19%)

SP500

6468.54
Daily: 1.96 (0.03%)
Weekly: 79.09 (1.24%)

VIX

14.83
Daily: 0.34 (2.35%)
Weekly: -0.32 (-2.11%)

GOLD

3390.0
Daily: 31.3 (0.93%)
Weekly: -49.1 (-1.43%)

COPPER

4.49
Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.8%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.83
Closest Support: $59.74 6.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.49% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.96
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-14 23:49:00
Next Trading Day: UP 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-15 $63.98 $61.78 $66.19
2025-08-16 $64.01 $61.81 $66.22
2025-08-17 $64.04 $61.83 $66.24
2025-08-18 $64.04 $61.83 $66.24
2025-08-19 $63.97 $61.76 $66.17

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-08-15), reaching $63.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-15 and 2025-08-19.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for traders. The decline in the OPEC Reference Basket by $5.02 and the narrowing Brent-WTI spread to $2.98 indicates potential volatility ahead.

Traders should watch for support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $65.00 for Brent, with resistance levels at $66.50 for Brent and $63.50 for WTI. The short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthening backwardation in the futures curve, reflecting optimism despite current price declines.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current bearish market sentiment, alongside a $68.98/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket, suggests that producers should reassess hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Inventory levels are crucial; with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is below the 2015–2019 average, producers may need to adjust production planning to avoid oversupply.

A focus on the impact of geopolitical factors and fluctuating demand from key markets like the US and China will be essential in strategizing production and sales.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude oil prices declining and sentiment remaining bearish, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The current WTI price of $62.65 and Brent at $65.63 indicate that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to capitalize on lower prices while ensuring supply reliability amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

The consideration for hedging against future price increases is advisable, especially given the volatility in global demand and the recent declines in OECD product stocks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently exhibits a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors. The decline in prices and the narrowing Brent-WTI spread suggest a tightening market, but ongoing concerns about inventory levels and demand growth (projected at 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026) indicate potential shifts in the balance of supply and demand.

Analysts should monitor the implications of the upward revisions in demand for DoC crude, as well as the recent bearish news sentiment, to gauge future price movements and market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-14 23:46:33 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil experienced volatility amid geopolitical tensions, initially rising with fears of conflict but quickly retreating following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The market is now focused on demand concerns, compounded by OPEC+ accelerating supply increases, creating a bearish outlook. Key levels to watch include $66.84 as the pivot point, with potential support at $63.80 and resistance at $68.48. Traders should remain alert to shifts in geopolitical dev...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-14 23:49

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