Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.67 $0.83

WTI: $63.52 $0.81

Spread: $4.15 (Brent premium of $4.15)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445

Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $63.77

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.21

MA(20): $64.94

Current Price is 63.77, 9 day MA 63.21, 20 day MA 64.94

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9365

Signal: -0.8836

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.36

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 206,558

Avg (20d): 264,611

Ratio: 0.78

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 38.05

%D: 27.3

Stochastic %K: 38.05, %D: 27.3. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.96

+DI: 14.85

-DI: 19.96

ADX: 16.96 (+DI: 14.85, -DI: 19.96). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -61.95

Williams %R: -61.95 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.55

Middle: 64.94

Lower: 60.34

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.55, Middle: 64.94, Lower: 60.34

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13382.0	13327.0	13300.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6497.0	6920.0	6285.0	6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4372.0	3577.0	3756.0	4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	17208.0	17180.0	16467.0	16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2125.0	3343.0	2529.0	2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420684.0	426698.0	430678.0	427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1666537.0	1670549.0	1663659.0	1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	223570.0	226290.0	222203.0	217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	116028.0	113685.0	126123.0	117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.67, change $+0.83. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.52, change $+0.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.15 (Brent premium of $4.15). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.67

0.83

(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.52

0.81

(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.15

Brent premium of $4.15

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst some supply adjustments and economic uncertainties.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to market dynamics and ensure a balanced supply-demand environment.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is showing signs of resilience, and we are optimistic about the market's recovery trajectory."

"While we face challenges, the overall outlook for oil demand remains positive, particularly in non-OECD regions."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445

Change: -21,420

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794

Change: -2,118

15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348

Change: +3,854

-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821

Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 55

Last Updated: 2025-08-22 23:49:08

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.73

Daily: -0.89 (-0.9%)

Weekly: -0.44 (-0.45%)

US_10Y

4.26

Daily: -0.07 (-1.62%)

Weekly: -0.08 (-1.87%)

SP500

6466.91

Daily: 96.74 (1.52%)

Weekly: 17.76 (0.28%)

VIX

14.22

Daily: -2.38 (-14.34%)

Weekly: -0.77 (-5.14%)

GOLD

3417.2

Daily: 80.3 (2.41%)

Weekly: 85.5 (2.57%)

COPPER

4.46

Daily: 0.03 (0.67%)

Weekly: 0.0 (0.09%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.77

Closest Support: $59.74 6.32% below current price

Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.58% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support

0.236 $64.14 Resistance

0.382 $66.87

0.5 $69.07

0.618 $71.27

0.786 $74.41

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48

1.618 $89.93

2.0 $97.06

2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.52

Forecast Generated: 2025-08-22 23:49:10

Next Trading Day: UP 0.12%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-08-22	$63.6	$61.59	$65.61
2025-08-23	$63.57	$61.56	$65.58
2025-08-24	$63.6	$61.59	$65.62
2025-08-25	$63.55	$61.54	$65.56
2025-08-26	$63.53	$61.52	$65.54

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-08-22), reaching $63.60.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-22 and 2025-08-26.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The crude oil market has shown significant bearish momentum with the OPEC Reference Basket declining by $5.02 to average $68.98/b. This trend is reflected in both the Brent and WTI contracts, which have seen month-over-month declines of $5.01 and $4.98, respectively.

The support level appears to be around $62.96 for WTI, while resistance may be observed at the $68.98 level for the OPEC basket. The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread suggests potential short-term arbitrage opportunities, particularly as the market transitions into a stronger backwardation phase.

Overall, while there is a bullish sentiment with a score of +0.600, traders should remain cautious of volatility, especially given the recent risk factors surrounding geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the supply-demand balance forecast, which indicates a modest increase in global oil demand of 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026. However, the downward revision of non-DoC liquids supply growth to 0.8 mb/d may provide some support for pricing stability.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb signals a potential oversupply situation. This could affect hedging strategies and production planning, as producers may want to adjust output in anticipation of weaker prices.

Market sentiment remains bullish, but the weakening positioning of managed money traders may indicate caution. Producers should monitor inventory levels closely as they could impact operational decisions significantly.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as the WTI and Brent prices hover around $63.52 and $67.67, respectively. The risk of supply reliability due to geopolitical factors remains a concern, particularly with the ongoing dynamics in the Middle East.

The decline in US crude imports and the slight increase in product exports may indicate a tightening market, which could lead to higher procurement costs. Consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price spikes.

Additionally, with refinery margins showing mixed signals, especially in the USGC, consumers should evaluate their supply contracts to ensure competitiveness and reliability in the face of changing market conditions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market landscape reflects a complex interplay between bearish price movements and bullish sentiment indicators. The OPEC narrative suggests a cautious outlook due to declining prices and rising inventories, which could lead to shifts in market dynamics.

Key driving factors include the fundamental balance of supply and demand, with a projected increase in global

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-22 23:46:38 Length: 480 chars

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