Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-23 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.73 $0.06
WTI: $63.66 $0.14
Spread: $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.66
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.19

MA(20): $64.94

Current Price is 63.66, 9 day MA 63.19, 20 day MA 64.94

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9452

Signal: -0.8853

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.84

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 250,166

Avg (20d): 266,792

Ratio: 0.94

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 35.76

%D: 26.54

Stochastic %K: 35.76, %D: 26.54. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.96

+DI: 14.85

-DI: 19.96

ADX: 16.96 (+DI: 14.85, -DI: 19.96). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -64.24

Williams %R: -64.24 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.55

Middle: 64.94

Lower: 60.33

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.55, Middle: 64.94, Lower: 60.33

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13382.0 13327.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6497.0 6920.0 6285.0 6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4372.0 3577.0 3756.0 4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17208.0 17180.0 16467.0 16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2125.0 3343.0 2529.0 2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420684.0 426698.0 430678.0 427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1666537.0 1670549.0 1663659.0 1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 223570.0 226290.0 222203.0 217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 116028.0 113685.0 126123.0 117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.73, change $+0.06. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.66, change $+0.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.73
0.06
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.66
0.14
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.07
Brent premium of $4.07

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the market outlook, despite recent fluctuations in oil prices and global economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through its production agreements, while closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization anticipates that ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping future market conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive shift in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 40
Last Updated: 2025-08-23 23:48:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.72
Daily: -0.9 (-0.91%)
Weekly: -0.45 (-0.46%)

US_10Y

4.26
Daily: -0.07 (-1.62%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.87%)

SP500

6466.91
Daily: 96.74 (1.52%)
Weekly: 17.76 (0.28%)

VIX

14.22
Daily: -2.38 (-14.34%)
Weekly: -0.77 (-5.14%)

GOLD

3374.4
Daily: 37.5 (1.12%)
Weekly: 42.7 (1.28%)

COPPER

4.45
Daily: 0.02 (0.36%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.21%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.66
Closest Support: $59.74 6.16% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.75% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.66
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-23 23:48:42
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-23 $63.63 $61.68 $65.58
2025-08-24 $63.67 $61.71 $65.62
2025-08-25 $63.61 $61.66 $65.56
2025-08-26 $63.59 $61.64 $65.54
2025-08-27 $63.58 $61.63 $65.54

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-08-23), reaching $63.63.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-23 and 2025-08-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in Crude Oil prices across major benchmarks, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b, indicates a potential for continued volatility. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.07 reflects ongoing disparities in supply dynamics, suggesting traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely.

The short-term bullish sentiment is supported by backwardation in the forward curves, but the weakening managed money positioning (-21,420 contracts) could signal caution. Key support levels to watch include Fibonacci retracement levels around $62 for WTI and $66 for Brent.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the current inventory levels showing a slight increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, producers may need to adjust their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The decline in crude prices could impact revenue forecasts, necessitating a review of operational costs.

The upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025 provides a positive outlook, yet producers should remain vigilant of the global economic growth forecasts, particularly in the US and Eurozone, which could influence demand dynamics.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent fluctuations in crude prices, with WTI settling at $63.66 and Brent at $67.73, suggest potential input cost fluctuations for refineries and transportation sectors. Consumers should prepare for procurement strategies that account for possible price increases due to tightening inventories.

The reduction in US crude imports and the decline in product imports could pose supply reliability risks, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate. Monitoring inventory levels and international supply chain dynamics will be critical for ensuring stable operations.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a mixed sentiment, with a overall market sentiment score of +0.700 indicating optimism despite the recent price declines. The fundamental outlook remains robust, particularly with non-OECD demand projected to grow significantly.

Analysts should focus on the weakening managed money positions and the implications of OPEC's production adjustments on future price stability. The convergence of technical indicators and fundamental data suggests that while there are bullish signals, caution is warranted given the economic headwinds facing major markets.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific advice tailored to your situation.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-23 23:46:21 Length: 480 chars
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Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-23 23:49

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