Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-26 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.8 $1.07
WTI: $64.8 $1.14
Spread: $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.29
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.45

MA(20): $64.55

Current Price is 63.29, 9 day MA 63.45, 20 day MA 64.55

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.7848

Signal: -0.8504

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.09

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.09 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,942

Avg (20d): 245,595

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 42.59

%D: 45.94

Stochastic %K: 42.59, %D: 45.94. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.94

+DI: 17.58

-DI: 18.91

ADX: 14.94 (+DI: 17.58, -DI: 18.91). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -57.41

Williams %R: -57.41 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.66

Middle: 64.55

Lower: 60.43

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.66, Middle: 64.55, Lower: 60.43

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13382.0 13327.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6497.0 6920.0 6285.0 6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4372.0 3577.0 3756.0 4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17208.0 17180.0 16467.0 16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2125.0 3343.0 2529.0 2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420684.0 426698.0 430678.0 427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1666537.0 1670549.0 1663659.0 1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 223570.0 226290.0 222203.0 217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 116028.0 113685.0 126123.0 117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.8, change $+1.07. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.8, change $+1.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.8
1.07
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.8
1.14
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.0
Brent premium of $4.00

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over declining crude prices and mixed signals in global economic growth, while maintaining a steady outlook on oil demand.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Stable global economic growth forecasts with slight revisions.
  • Consistent oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to inform future policy decisions.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for OPEC's role in the global oil market."
"Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating prices, we remain optimistic about the long-term demand for oil."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 34
Last Updated: 2025-08-26 23:49:16

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.36
Daily: -0.07 (-0.07%)
Weekly: 0.14 (0.15%)

US_10Y

4.26
Daily: -0.02 (-0.4%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.88%)

SP500

6465.94
Daily: 26.62 (0.41%)
Weekly: 70.16 (1.1%)

VIX

14.62
Daily: -0.17 (-1.15%)
Weekly: -1.07 (-6.82%)

GOLD

3432.6
Daily: 58.8 (1.74%)
Weekly: 89.2 (2.67%)

COPPER

4.46
Daily: -0.01 (-0.17%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.75%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.29
Closest Support: $61.94 2.13% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 4.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.25
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-26 23:49:18
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-27 $63.2 $61.13 $65.27
2025-08-28 $63.15 $61.08 $65.22
2025-08-29 $63.15 $61.08 $65.23
2025-08-30 $63.13 $61.06 $65.2
2025-08-31 $63.21 $61.14 $65.29

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-08-27), reaching $63.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-27 and 2025-08-31.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46/b for ICE Brent, suggests potential bearish sentiment in the short term. The narrowing of the $3.50/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a convergence in pricing dynamics, possibly reflecting localized supply concerns or shifts in demand.

With the support level to watch around $62.00/b for WTI and $66.00/b for Brent, traders should be cautious of potential volatility as managed money positions have decreased significantly, suggesting a weakening bullish sentiment. The risk of further price declines exists if inventory levels continue to rise and geopolitical tensions ease.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The downward revisions in non-DoC liquids supply growth and the slight increase in demand for DoC crude indicate a need for careful production planning. With OECD commercial crude inventories rising to 1,323 mb, producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations.

The balance of supply and demand is tightening, which may support prices in the medium term, but current bearish sentiment could impact operational decisions. Maintaining flexibility in production and adjusting output in response to market signals will be crucial.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Recent fluctuations in crude prices, with WTI at $64.80/b and Brent at $68.80/b, suggest potential input cost fluctuations for consumers. The geopolitical landscape and rising inventory levels could affect procurement strategies, necessitating close monitoring of market trends and potential hedging against price increases.

As refinery margins begin to recover in some regions, consumers should evaluate their supply reliability and consider diversifying sources to mitigate risks associated with potential supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several bearish and bullish factors. While the overall market sentiment is bullish, driven by a slight upward adjustment in demand forecasts, the significant drop in managed money positions indicates a potential shift towards caution in speculative trading.

Key driving factors include the tightening balance of supply and demand, with rising inventories and geopolitical tensions shaping the outlook. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in sentiment and positioning, particularly as economic growth forecasts for major economies are adjusted. These elements will be crucial in forecasting future market movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-26 23:46:46 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently consolidating around the $63.80 mark, with signals suggesting a downward trend. Recent softness in diesel stocks, OPEC+ adding incremental barrels, and soft demand (though higher than expected) point toward a potential retest of $61.64, possibly heading into the $50s. While near-term outlook appears bearish, analysts anticipate a longer-term price strength into 2026. Watch for inventory reports and geopolitical tensions, as these could significantly ...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-26 23:49

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